The US$ was rather mixed on Friday and this looks likely to remain the case with the medium/longer term momentum indicators looking fairly neutral. The Euro traded with a heavy tone into the weekend and I am happy to stay short EurUsd, particularly with the PMIs coming up, where I suspect the EU will underperform the US.
AudUsd look better bid today but there is a lot of Australian data which I suspect will be generally soft, with the RBA, tomorrow, being the main focus of the week. I am happy to be short and to sell into strength.
On the crosses, Sterling still looks very heavy as the Brexit process disintegrates, and GbpJpy in particular appears to be forming a H/S top, currently sitting above the neckline/100DMA, but a break of which could see a 500bp move lower.
Elsewhere on the crosses, EurAud looks heavy, possibly targeting 1.5700, a break of which could see a downward acceleration towards 1.5350.
US stocks look mildly bid in the short term and do appear ready to break to the topside, where a run towards 2900 in the S+P may be on the cards. At the same time, the DJI may see a run towards 26200, above which could target 26950. In the short term, ahead of the NFP on Friday, I suspect that we are in for some range trading.
WTI looks better bid again and may now wish to take a look at the 200 DMA, currently at 61.50. look to buy dips above the 200 WMA at 58.50, SL at 57.50
*Trade of the day: April 1, 2019; 8:18 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.
Sell EurUsd @1.1250. SL @ 1.1305, TP @ 1.1175
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7140. SL @ 0.7175, TP @ 0.7050
Buy AudUsd @ 0.7050. SL @ 0.7020, TP @ 0.7150
Sell GbpJpy @ 144.75. SL @ 145.75, TP @ 141.00
Range Trade: S+P: 2850/2810 (SL 20 pips either side)