1 Dec: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

By | December 1, 2017


EURUSD: 1.1899
EurUsd is higher on Friday after having bounced off the rising trend support but has been unable to hold on to its highs at 1.1931 and is closing back below 1.1900. Further choppy trade above 1.1800 looks likely.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The dailies remain constructive so further progress may be seen but the short term momentum indicators look less certain of such a move today. I prefer to remain neutral for now. Looking to trade a range od 1.1850/1.1950 may be a plan today.
Resistance Support
1.2004 22 Sept high 1.1885 Minor
1.1985 Minor 1.1850 Minor
1.1960/64 27 Nov high / (76.4% of 1.2091/1.1553) 1.1830 Rising trend support
1.1950 Minor 1.1805 (38.2% of 1.1553/1.1943)/Session low
1.1931 Session low 1.1775 100 DMA/55 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                                        

EU Manufacturing PMIs, Feds Bullard, Kaplan speeches

USDJPY: 112.51
US$Jpy is firmer again today, underpinned  by broadly rising US rates and stocks, although it did see a brief dip and reverse on the Tillerson story in falling to the session low of 111.73. Now up against decent resistance at around 112.75, a break would suggest a run towards 113.20.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mildly Bullish Daily Indicators: Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  With the daily momentum indicators looking a little more positive, I prefer to lean towards the upside, looking for a break of 113.70 for a move towards 113.20. Support should now be seen at 112.20/30.

Buy US$Jpy @ 112.30. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20

Resistance Support
113.80 (76.4% of 114.73/110.83) 112.30 Weekly cloud top
113.20 (61.8% of 114.73/110.83) 112.00 Minor
113.00 Minor 111.73/70 Session low/100 DMA/200 DMA
112.75 (50% of 114.73/110.83)/Daily cloud top/Daily Kijun 111.35 29 Nov low
112.63 Session high 111.02 (50% pivot of 107.31/114.73)

Economic data highlights will include:

CPI, Unemployment

GBPUSD: 1.3522
Sterling continues to benefit from the more positive Brexit headlines and the momentum indicators suggest that further gains lie ahead although the hourly charts are now becoming overbought
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  The initial resistance lies at 1.3550 but if that is taken out, and then there is little to stop a move towards 1.3600 and eventually to the September high at 1.3656. I prefer to trade from the long side and think Sterling has further good gains ahead of it against both the dollar and on the crosses.

Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3485. SL @ 1.3390, TP @ 1.3650

Buy GbpAud @ 1.7780 SL @ 1.7680, TP @ 1.7900

Sell EurGbp @ 0.8840. SL @ 0.8885, TP @ 0.8760

Resistance Support
1.3656 20 Sept high 1.3500 Minor
1.3625 Minor 1.3480 Minor
1.3595 22 Sept high 1.3430 (23.6% of 1.3038/1.3548)
1.3570 Minor 1.3406 Session low
1.3548 Session high 1.3385 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Manufacturing PMI

USDCHF: 0.9841
US$Chf is unchanged after a similar range to the previous session, of 0.9815/81.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The momentum indicators are still offering little hint either way, and a neutral stance is required although out of choice I prefer to trade the dollar from the long side.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9800. SL @ 0.9770, TP @ 0.9900

Resistance Support
0.9960 Minor 0.9835 100 WMA
0.9946 21 Nov high 0.9815 Session low
0.9905  (76.4% of 0.9946/0.9776) 0.9805/00 200 DMA /28 Nov low
0.9880  (61.8% of 0.9946/0.9776)Session high 0.9776 27 Nov low
0.9860 Minor 0.9727 (50% of 0.9420/1.0037)

AUDUSD: 0.7563
After a choppy day, AudUsd is heavy at the end of the US session and seems set to remain so in the days ahead. The spike higher today in US yields will not help the Aud as we approach the December FOMC Meeting and a test of 0.7500 looks increasingly possible. Housing data and the Australian/Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are due today along with the local Housing data.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Pointing mildly higher Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Another choppy session could be in store although I lean towards selling into rallies, looking for an eventual test of 0.7500, and lower, as we approach the next Fed meeting on Dec 13.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7585. SL @ 0.7615, TP @ 0.7500

Resistance Support
0.7665 13 Nov high /(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7531) 0.7551 29 Nov low  (61.8% of 0.7159/0.8124)
0.7644 27 Nov high 0.7531 21 Nov low  /100 WMA
0.7620 28 Nov high 0.7515 (76.4% of 0.7328/0.8124)
0.7606 29 Nov high 0.7500 Minor
0.7594 Session high 0.7475 Rising trend support

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                      

HIA New Home Sales,  RBA Commodity Index, Australian/Caixin China Manufacturing PMIs

NZDUSD: 0.6835
The Kiwi is lower again today and looks set for a test of 0.6800 at some stage. Watch the Terms of Trade (exp +0.9%) which could provide some volatility.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  Selling rallies still seems to be the plan, with a SL today placed above 0.6880.

In the bigger picture, with the longer term (weekly) charts looking heavy, I suspect the Kiwi is currently biding its time ahead of a more sustained test of the downside. In the short term though, I suspect another test of 0.6920/30 may lie ahead and it is possible that we could even see a return to the neckline of the major head and shoulders, at 0.6990, before heading lower.

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6850. SL @ 0.6885, TP @ 0.6775

Resistance Support
0.6933 (23.6% of 0.7434/0.6783) 0.6829 Session low
0.6928 29 Nov high 0.6800 Minor
0.6900 Minor 0.6779 17 Nov low
0.6870 200 HMA 0.6750 Minor
0.6950 Minor 0.6725 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:                

NZ Terms of Trade