1 Feb: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | February 1, 2019

The currency markets look rather more mixed today following the sharp selloff seen in the US$ yesterday. The Aud looks positive but is becoming quite overbought on the 4 hour charts and is facing stiff resistance at 0.7295 (200 DMA) and will take its next direction from any announcement from the US/China trade meeting later in the session, ahead of the Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data due late in the day. Buying dips may be a plan, although I am wary of being long $Aud at these levels.

On the other hand, the Euro looks a bit heavy in the short term and selling rallies may be a plan, with a tight SL placed above the session high of 1.1514.

Stocks look increasingly positive, so again, look to trade from the long side, looking to buy dips. Having said that, some stiff resistance lies ahead, with the S+P 100 DMA currently sitting at 2707, and the 200 DMA at 2744. The DJI is also struggling at the convergence of the 100 DMA and the 200 DMA, both now at 24960.

WTI looks choppy again but I still like the upside, given the look of the Head/Shoulders that appears to be building, so buying dips is preferred.

Overall expect a mostly tight session with and US/China announcement likely to create soe wave, beyond which the real action will come from the US Jobs data.


*Trade of the day: February 1, 2019; 10:19 AM(AET)                         

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7295. SL @ 0.7315, TP @ 0.7200

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7200. SL @ 0.7150, TP @ 0.7290

Buy Gold @ 1310. SL @ 1298, TP @ 1325

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1385. SL @ 1.1345, TP @ 1.1525

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1515. SL @ 1.1545, TP @ 1.1450