1 Mar: Better than expected US GDP underpins the US$. Busy day ahead for the US. China Caixin Mfg PMI coming up.

By | March 1, 2019

 

The US$ was mixed on Thursday, rising  to a 10-week high against the Jpy and reversing early European losses against  the stronger Euro, seen after stronger than expected German inflation data , when the USQ4 GDP came in stronger than expected at  2.6%, slower than the 3.4% in the previous quarter but beating expectation of 2.5%. The main losers were the Aud and the Kiwi which both fell steadily through the session, finishing on their lows and looking heavy going into Friday trade.

In other markets, stocks were flat, as was WTI, while the metals lost about 0.5% and also look heavy, not helped by stronger US yields (US10Y @ 2.725%).

Friday will be another busy session beginning in Asia with the Australian AIG Performance of Services Index, NZ Building Permits, Q4 Terms of Trade (exp TT Index; -1.0%qq), the Japan Nikkei Mfg PMI, Unemployment, Industrial Production, the Tokyo CPI and the Caixin China Flash Manufacturing PMI. Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking around lunch time in Asia but as he has already testified to Congress this week it should not be market moving. Nevertheless, stay alert! From Europe come the German/EU Unemployment figures for February and then the Preliminary EU CPI figures, also for February. The US winds up the week with a busy session, featuring the January Personal Spending (exp 0.3%mm)/Income (exp 0.4%), the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, PCE Deflator (exp 0.0%mm, 1.7%yy%), the Markit Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs Mfg PMI, the ISM Mfg PMI (exp 56.2)/Prices Paid (exp 52.0), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (exp 95.5) and a speech from the Fed’s Bostic.  Have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:

Fri: Australian AIG Performance of Services Index, NZ Building Permits, Terms of Trade, Tokyo CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Production, Nikkei Mfg PMI, RBA Commodity Index, Caixin China Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Import/Export Index, Unemployment, EU Mfg PMIs, UK Consumer Credit, EU CPI, Unemployment, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, Personal Income/Spending, ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid, Construction Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1379
Res  1.1400  1.1420  1.1440
Sup  1.1350  1.1300  1.1325
USDJPY: 111.46
Res  111.45  111.70  112.00
Sup  111.10  110.85  110.65
GBPUSD: 1.3263
Res  1.3300  1.3330  1.3355
Sup  1.3230  1.3200  1.3165
USDCHF: 0.9974
Res  0.9995  1.0015  1.0030
Sup  0.9960  0.9940  0.9925
AUDUSD: 0.7095
Res  0.7125  0.7145  0.7165
Sup  0.7070  0.7050  0.7020
NZDUSD: 0.6807
Res  0.6825  0.6850  0.6875
Sup  0.6795  0.6775  0.6755
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2787.78
Res  2800.00  2815.00  2825.00
Sup  2785.00  2775.00  2765.00
DJ30.fs: 25933.50
Res  26095.00  26230.00  26425.00
Sup  25870.00  25755.00  25600.00
SPI200.fs: 6155
Res  6175  6195  6225
Sup  6135  6115  6095
XAUUSD: 1314.71
Res  1320.00  1325.00  1330.00
Sup  1310.00  1305.00  1300.00
XAGUSD: 15.60
Res  15.75  15.90  16.00
Sup  15.50  15.35  15.20
WTI.fs: 57.21
Res  57.80  59.00  60.00
Sup  56.00  55.05  53.80