1 Mar: Forecast: Stocks, Commodities

By | March 1, 2017

 

S+P: 2362

Retail and Technology stocks eased back a little on Tuesday ahead of today’s Donald Trump address that everyone is waiting for, taking the S+P a little lower but with little damage done, and leaving the outlook unchanged.

Technically, the dailies still point higher – although they may now be in the process of rolling over – so the ongoing drift to new all time highs could well continue this week as we head slowly towards 2400. On the downside, support will be seen at today’s session low of 2357, at 2345/50, below which further support lies at 2330/35 and then 2320. I would rather not be involved at these levels although the slow squeeze higher looks set to continue and buying dips seems to be the plan. The 1 and 4 hour charts are now flat. Stand aside and wait for Donald Trump to provide the direction.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2400 Minor 2357 Session low
2390 Minor 2349 24 Feb low
2380 Minor 2345 20 Feb low
2375 Minor 2331 16 Feb low
2369 28 Feb high  /All time high 2320 14 Feb low

DJI: 20802

Ditto S+P.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
21100 Minor 20757 28 Feb low
21000 Minor 20694 24 Feb low
20900 Minor 20601 21 Feb low
20850 Minor 20566 20 Feb low
20829 Session high    /All time high 20505 17 Feb low

ASX SPI: 5680

The ASX traded nicely yesterday, squeezing up to our sell zone at 5720/25 (high 5728) before falling back below 5700 to currently sit near the session lows of 5672.

The short term momentum indicators look rather undecided today but  the dailies are heading lower so once again, selling into rallies near 5720 is preferred, if we see it up there, which looks doubtful. If wrong, above 5720, expect to find further sellers at 5740. On the downside, the initial support will be seen at 5675/70 and then again at 5665/5650/5620. Today will be all about Donald Trump (and the Q4 GDP) and  if global stocks do continue to head higher, taking the ASX with them,  then above last week’s high of 5778 look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. Right now this looks unlikely and the preference once again is to sell towards 5720/25 with a SL placed above 5750.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5789 9 Jan high 5672 Session low
5778 16 Feb high 5665 13 Feb low
5760 Minor 5650 (50% of 5526/5778)
5740 200 HMA 5622 (61.8% of 5526/5778)
5728 Session high 5600 Minor

GOLD: 1249

Gold is pretty much unchanged from this time yesterday although it has seen quite a sharp drop from the early high, of 1258, to the day’s low at 1248.

The 200 DMA will remain significant resistance but the dailies still look mildly constructive, and a topside break of 1260 could then see a run towards 1270, and possibly on to 1285 and 1300 at some stage. On the downside, a failure at 1260 will see nearby support at 1245/50 and then at 1236. As before, trading from the long side is mildly preferred, looking to buy dips, but with a SL now placed below the rising trend support at 1230.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1292 10 Nov high 1247 Session low
1286 (76.4% of 1337/1222) 1236 23 Feb low/Daily Tenkan
1270 Minor 1230 Rising trend support/Daily cloud top  / (23.6% of 1122/1263)
1261/63 200 DMA / 28 Feb high 1220 Minor
1258 Session high 1210 100 DMA

SILVER: 18.32

Gold is pretty much unchanged from this time yesterday although it has seen quite a sharp drop from the early high, of 1258, to the day’s low at 1248.

The 200 DMA will remain significant resistance but the dailies still look mildly constructive, and a topside break of 1260 could then see a run towards 1270, and possibly on to 1285 and 1300 at some stage. On the downside, a failure at 1260 will see nearby support at 1245/50 and then at 1236. As before, trading from the long side is mildly preferred, looking to buy dips, but with a SL now placed below the rising trend support at 1230.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1292 10 Nov high 1247 Session low
1286 (76.4% of 1337/1222) 1236 23 Feb low/Daily Tenkan
1270 Minor 1230 Rising trend support/Daily cloud top  / (23.6% of 1122/1263)
1261/63 200 DMA / 28 Feb high 1220 Minor
1258 Session high 1210 100 DMA

OIL (WTI): 53.91

Gold is pretty much unchanged from this time yesterday although it has seen quite a sharp drop from the early high, of 1258, to the day’s low at 1248.

The 200 DMA will remain significant resistance but the dailies still look mildly constructive, and a topside break of 1260 could then see a run towards 1270, and possibly on to 1285 and 1300 at some stage. On the downside, a failure at 1260 will see nearby support at 1245/50 and then at 1236. As before, trading from the long side is mildly preferred, looking to buy dips, but with a SL now placed below the rising trend support at 1230.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1292 10 Nov high 1247 Session low
1286 (76.4% of 1337/1222) 1236 23 Feb low/Daily Tenkan
1270 Minor 1230 Rising trend support/Daily cloud top  / (23.6% of 1122/1263)
1261/63 200 DMA / 28 Feb high 1220 Minor
1258 Session high 1210 100 DMA