1 May: US$ firm, commodity currencies heavy. RBA ahead. Focus on tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting.

By | May 1, 2018

 

The US$ has maintained its firm note on Monday, although mostly contained within the range of the last  two sessions, after the US data indicated that US personal income rose 0.3% mm in March, below expectation of 0.4%, while personal spending rose 0.4%, in-line with consensus. The headline PCE accelerated to 2.0% yy in March, up from 1.7% yy in February, in line with expectations. Core PCE accelerated to 1.9% yy, up from 1.6% yy, also meeting expectations.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index beat expectations while the Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate came in at a firm 21.80, compared to 21.40 the previous month, further underpinning the dollar. Earlier, during the EU session, the March German Retail Sales missed badly, coming in at -0.6%mm, as opposed to expectations of +0.8%, undermining the Euro in the process. The commodity bloc remains under pressure, with both the Aud and Kiwi trading at new trend lows. US stocks fell, by around 0.75%, as healthcare stocks slid, while a higher oil price and a looming deadline for exemptions to US steel and aluminum tariffs weighed on investor sentiment. Gold took a hit, down $8per oz, under pressure from the stronger dollar.

Tuesday will begin with the RBA Meeting although no change to policy is expected and it will be the statement that is in focus. In particular, traders will be keen to see whether Governor Lowe will indicate that the RBA is cutting its 2018 GDP forecast. The forecasts will be released in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday, with the RBA expected to lower its growth forecast from 3.25% to 3.0%. Otherwise, the coming session should be quiet, with it being the EU May-Day holiday although the US will get the ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid data. It could be a fairly quiet day as most traders will be looking towards tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting and Statement, in what will be a busy day.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2075
Res  1.2100  1.2135  1.2155
Sup  1.2065  1.2050  1.2030
USDJPY: 109.30
Res  109.50  109.65  109.80
Sup  109.00  108.80  108.55
GBPUSD: 1.3758
Res  1.3800  1.3840  1.3875
Sup  1.3740  1.3710  1.3680
USDCHF: 0.9909
Res  0.9920  0.9935  0.9955
Sup  0.9870  0.9850  0.9815
AUDUSD: 0.7530
Res  0.7550  0.7565  0.7585
Sup  0.7520  0.7500  0.7470
NZDUSD: 0.7034
Res  0.7055  0.7075  0.7095
Sup  0.7030  0.7015  0.7000
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2645
Res  2660  2675  2690
Sup  2640  2625  2610
DJ30: 24108
Res  24280  24460  24610
Sup  24010  23880  23700
SPI200: 5948
Res  5955  5965  5975
Sup  5935  5920  5905
XAUUSD: 1315
Res  1320  1325  1330
Sup  1310  1305  1300
XAGUSD: 16.31
Res  16.50  16.75  16.95
Sup  16.20  16.00  15.80
WTI: 68.55
Res  69.05  69.50  70.00
Sup  68.05  67.70  67.10