1 Nov: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | November 1, 2018

Most the action has once again been in the stock markets on Wednesday although the news is positive today, with the US indices currently up by 1.0%-2%, led by the tech sector. Further gains look possible in the sessions ahead so, for now, buying dips does seem to be the plan. Likewise, the ASX also seems to have further gains ahead of it, at least, in the near term.

In the FX markets, the US$ has been mixed, with the main focus being on Sterling which surged higher on the latest positive Brexit headline. In the short term, Cable looks set for further gains against both the US$ and also on the crosses. The longer-term picture looks more clouded and it is probably best left alone.

Elsewhere, the US$ is stronger against the Euro and Chf, slightly weaker against the Jpy and pretty much unchanged against the Aud and the Kiwi, so further range trade may be in store today although I still like to buy the US$ for the medium term up-trend, particularly against the Euro.

The crosses look mixed but in the short term, selling the Jpy crosses (i.e. EurJpy, AudJpy, NzdJpy) could be a plan

Commodities are trading heavily and look to have further downside ahead. As before, I prefer to sell all of them on rallies.

Economic data highlights will include:                                                         

Thur: Australian Performance of Mfg Index , Trade Balance, RBA Commidity  Index, Caixin China Flash Manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, BOE Meeting/Statement/Minutes/Vote Count/APP Facility, US Markit Manufacturing/Services /Composite PMIs/ISM Mfg PMIs, ISM  Mfg PMI/ Prices Paid, Construction Spending, Total Vehicle Sales

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*Trade of the day: November 1, 2018 7:15 AM(AET)                     

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1360/1.1260

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1350. SL @ 1.1390, TP @ 1.1275

Buy US$Chf @ 1.0000. SL @ 0.9960, TP @ 1.0100

Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7020/0.7120

Sell US$Jpy @ 113.10. SL @ 113.50, TP @ 112.20

Buy SPX500 @ 2675. SL @ 2645, TP @ 2725

Sell Gold @ 1223. SL @ 1233, TP @ 1205

Sell WTI @ 66.00. SL @ 66.50, TP @ 64.