10 Aug: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | August 10, 2017

 

S&P: 2474
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The S+P initially headed lower, trading down to 2458, before bouncing to finish the day at 2471, leaving the outlook mostly unchanged and with the next direction to be derived from any escalation, or otherwise, in the US/N Korea situation.

The daily momentum indicators remain fairly neutral and give little hint either way, although the bearish divergence and the reversal seen on Tuesday, does seem to hint that we may be building some downside momentum.  That remains to be seen and in the meantime another rangebound session could lie ahead while waiting on Friday’s CPI figure.

As before, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
2490 Minor 2465 Minor
2485 Minor 2458/55 Session low /(23.6% of 2345/2475)
2480 Minor 2447 18 July low
2488 8 Aug  high   -All-time high 2440 Minor
2480 Minor 2433 (38.2% of 2345/2475)


DJI: 22025
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Ditto S+P.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
22250 Minor 21955/59 4 Aug low /Session low
22200 Minor 21858 1 Aug low
22150 Minor 21735 (23.6% of 20474/22130)
22130 8 Aug  high  – all-time high 21682 28 July low
22025 Session high 21670 Rising trend support

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ASX SPI: 5705
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The choppy, sideways trade continues – Wednesday trading between 5717/5662.

As we said before, the momentum indicators still look pretty neutral and the chart looks a mess so I would not be too involved right now. More of the same looks likely and the wide range of 5600/5765 look set to cover it in the medium term. Sidelined.

Resistance Support
5760 100 DMA 5665/62 200 DMA / Session low
5747 4 July high 5658 8 Aug  low
5735 8 Aug  high 5641 4 Aug low/3 Aug low
5717 Session high 5630 28 July low
5700 Minor 5592 24 July low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)


XAUUSD: 1277
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Gold has headed up to 1279 on the back of the softer US$/safe haven demand, and is in the process of taking out some decent resistance in the 1275/80 area.

Further upside momentum seems possible, and on the topside a break of 1280 would allow a run towards 1295 and then to 1300+, albeit not today.

The daily charts remain fairly neutral and further choppy trade may be the outcome, and on the downside 1260 will see bids ahead of good support which still lies at 1250/55, a break of which would allow a move to and then at 1240/45 and possibly at 1235.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral.

Resistance Support
1300 Minor 1261 (23.6% of 1205/1278)
1296 6 June high 1252/50  (38.2% of 1205/1278)/100 DMA
1280 14 June high 1245 Minor
1278 Session high 1241 (50% of 1205/1278)
1275 Descending trend resistance / (76.4% of 1295/1208) 1233 (61.8% of 1205/1278)


XAGUSD: 16.94
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Silver has followed Gold higher and is currently sitting up against strong resistance at 16.95, the 100 DMA.

The 4 hour momentum indicators suggest further upside progress is likely although the 200 DMA at 17.05 will again see good sellers. Above here though would allow a run towards 17.30 and possibly higher.

The dailies though remain flat and if the nearby resistance holds, then we could see another retreat towards 16.75 and even back to the session low of 16.45, although this seems unlikely.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Possibly buy dips near 16.75 with a SL below 16.45.

Resistance Support
17.32 (61.8% of 18.65/15.18) 16.75 Minor
17.15 Minor 16.60 200 HMA
17.05 200 DMA 16.44 Session low
17.00 100 DMA 16.12 7 Aug low
16.90/92 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/Session high 16.02 (50% of 15.18/16.87)


WTI: 49.68
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
WTI has had a choppy day (48.88/49.69), leaving the outlook unchanged.

Technically, the short term momentum indicators look rather flat, possibly slightly positive, and we could well just chop around near current levels.

The 200 DMA may continue to act as a magnate but If we do head higher, then the initial resistance will arrive at the 3 Aug high of 49.93. Beyond that could see a return to the recent high at 50.40 and then to the descending trend resistance, now at 50.70, although this seems unlikely today.

The dailies still look a little toppish though, and on the downside, back below 49.00 buyers should arrive at around 48.80, and then at 48.35/50 ahead of 47.85, below which, there is little to support the price until 47.15.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral.

Resistance Support
50.70 Descending trend resistance 49.40 200 DMA
50.40 1 Aug high 48.84/88 8 Aug  low /Session low
50.20 (61.8% of 55.21/42.03) 48.51/48 7 Aug low /4 Aug low
49.76 8 Aug  low 48.40/34 (23.6% of 42.02/50.40)/1 Aug low
49.62 Session high 47.85/92 26 July low /100 DMA