10 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 10, 2017

 

  • Commodities:
  • WTI fell more than 2.5%. U.S. production and rig counts rose last week just as OPEC exports hit a 2017 high.
  • Silver had a mini flash-crash (14.30 low) but recovered from that although the metals remained under heavy pressure due to the prospect of a stronger dollar following the release of the US jobs data.
  • Stocks:
  • Choppy but finished on a positive note.
  • Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
  • US NFP Jun +222k vs 179k exp’d, 152k prev
  • US Unemployment: Jun @ 4.4% vs 4.3% exp’d, 4.3% prev
  • US Average Earnings mm Jun +0.2% vs 0.3% exp’d, 0.1% prev
  • Fed sees US economy seen growing 1.96% in Q2 vs 1.91%
  • Fed sees US economy seen growing 1.78% in Q3 vs 1.61%
S&P: 2423
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The choppy, sideways action continues and a similar session today would not surprise although the short term momentum indicators do hint that the initial move could be slightly higher. The longer term charts tend to point in the opposite direction though, so selling into rallies, with a SL placed tight above the all-time high still remains mildly favoured for those who wish to be involved.
Resistance Support
2450 20 June high  –All-time high 2407/05 Friday low/6 July low
2447 26 June high 2402 31 May low /30 June low
2436 3 July high 2397 (50% of 2344/2450)
2430 6 July high 2390 Minor
2424 Friday high 2384 (61.8% of 2344/2450)


DJI: 21363
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Ditto S+P

Resistance Support
21550 Minor 21255 (23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support/6 July low
21504 3 July high  – all-time high 21137 29 June low
21439 6 July high 21110 (38.2% of 20474/21504)
21400 Minor 20985 (50% of 20474/21504)
21375 Friday high 20905 100 DMA


ASX SPI: 5661
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The 100 DMA/200 DMAs continue to largely contain the ASX although Friday did see a brief downside break, to trade down to 5622 ahead of a late recovery to 5660, suggesting that the daily parameters will cover it again today. The short term momentum indicators actually point al little higher, possibly to retest Friday’s high and even 5790 although I doubt we head much above here. The longer term charts look a little doubtful in the topside and if we do retest 5620, then we could then carry on to 5600, below which there is little support until 5526 (7 Feb low).

Resistance Support
5745 4 July high 5635 200 DMA
5725 Minor 5622 Friday low
5710 Minor 5598 21 June low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)
5690 200 HMA 5575 Minor
5672 Friday high 5550 Minor


XAUUSD: 1213
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Prefer to sell rallies

Gold fell hard on Friday, through some decent support, to a low of 1208 before closing at 1212. Further medium term losses look likely so trading from the short side is preferred. Good resistance now lies at 1217. This may act as a near-term magnate, so leave a little room above here but looking to sell into rallies towards 1220/25 does seem to be the plan, looking for a stronger test of 1200. I would keep the SL above 1230.

Resistance Support
1241 (38.2% of 1295/1208) 1208 Friday low/(50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1232 200 DMA /200 WMA 1195 10 March low
1229 (23.6% of 1295/1208) 1188 (61.8% pivot of 1122/1295)
1225 Minor 1180 27 Jan low
1217 100 WMA 1164/65 (76.4% pivot of 1122/1295)/ Major Rising trend support.


XAGUSD: 15.57
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Prefer to sell rallies

A mini flash-crash took silver to 14.30 on Friday, so charting it is a little tricky today although the hint is that we are going to see an eventual decline back towards those levels in the days ahead. For now a neutral stance seems wise, possibly looking to sell into strength near 15.85/95, should we see it.

Resistance Support
16.35 Minor 15.50 Minor
16.22 5 July high 15.35 Minor
16.17 Friday high 15.20 Minor
15.95 (38.2% of 18.65/14.29) 15.00 Minor
15.80 Minor 14.80 Minor


WTI: 44.31
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. WTI fell sharply, by around 2.9%, to a low of 43.75 on Friday but it then recovered, to close the week back at 44.30.  The short term momentum indicators now hint at the chance of further minor gains in the session ahead, with Friday’s high of 45.40 being the immediate target. Above there would allow a run towards 46.50. On the downside, support will be seen at 44.00 and at 43.75 although this looks unlikely to be seen again on Monday. Further out, a break of 43.25 would then open the way back to 42.00/10.
Resistance Support
47.21 5 July high 44.00 Minor
47.00 Minor 43.75 Friday low
46.70 Minor 43.25 (76.4% of 42.02/47.29)
46.50 6 July high 42.51 23 June low
45.40 Friday high 42.02 21 June low