10 July: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | July 10, 2019

With the exception of the Aud$, which remains heavy, it has been another rather uninspiring session for FX traders and it would seem likely to remain so, at least until the US session when Fed Chair Powell testifies to Congress. The US$ currently retains a mildly bid tone on the daily charts although the short term indicators hint that we may be about to give back some of the recent gains. Further consolidation may well be the final outcome and I don’t think we should expect too much change in the coming session. Elsewhere, there is currently little to go on, and until Powell speaks it all looks likely to be very quiet.

EurUsd: The Euro remains under some pressure but for now is hanging on above 1.1200, after having seen a session low of 1192 (Daily cloud base).  If 1.1190/1.1200 can be taken out, then we could see a move towards 1.1178 (76.4%), which ties in with the 18 June low, below which would then open the way to 1.1150 and to strong support at 1.1105/15. On the topside, resistance will be seen at the session high of 1.1217, at the Monday high of 1.1235 and then at the 100 DMA 1.1255, ahead of minor levels at 1.1280 (200 HMA), 1.1300 and at 1.1315 ahead of the 200 DMA at 1.1350.Above here looks unlikely in the near future, but further gains could then see a run towards 1.1400 and the 25 June high of 1.1411, beyond which the next target is at 1.1447 (20 March high), which ties in with the Fibo level (23.6% of 1.2555/1.1106).  With the daily charts looking a little heavy I still prefer to look to sell rallies in the Euro.

DXY:  (97.50) The DXY is a little higher on Wednesday , and  with the daily momentum indicators still looking positive I think we could see further gains in the coming sessions. If so, the initial resistance will be seen at 97.59 (Session high) and then at 97.76 (18 June high) although we are unlikely to see much movement until Powell speaks later today. Beyond here would then target 98.00 and the trend high at 98.37 (23 May). On the downside, support will be seen at the initial support will arrive at 97.20 (minor). Below the 100 DMA (97.08), nearby support is seen at 97.00, below which would allow for a run back to 96.85 and to the 200 DMA (96.65) ahead of 96.40 (minor) and 96.00 (200 WMA) and then at last week’s low of 95.84. Buying dips currently seems to be the plan, with a SL placed below 96.60 (approx 1.1300 EurUsd)

US$Jpy: remains firm, once again underpinned by firm US yields on Wednesday, but has so far topped out below 109.00.Having reached 108.95 on Tuesday , this remains a hurdle to be overcome ( 108.90=38.2% of 112.40/106.78), above which would open the way to 109.00 and beyond, with minor resistance seen at 109.10/15. Beyond this would open 109.50 (50% of 112.40/106.78) and eventually back to 110.00. Support will now be seen at 108.75/78, at 108.45 (23.6% of 106.78/108.95) , at 108.15 (38.2%), at 108.00 and at 107.77 (Friday low) ahead of 107.53 (04 July low). The short term charts are showing hints of bearish divergence, so I remain neutral on US$Jpy at these levels but prefer to look for levels to buy dips given the positive look of the daily charts.

AudUsd:  The Aud has traded heavily on Tuesday and the dailies suggest that there will be more t come on the downed. The initial support is seen at 0.6820 (Session low) ahead of 0.6913 (61.8% of 0.6831/0.7048) and 0.6900. Below 0.6900 could open the way for a return to the 18 June low of 0.6830 although that remains some way off and bids will be seen at 0.6880 (76.4%) and at 0.6850. On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 0.6950/55 (Daily cloud base),  at 0.6968 (38.2% of 0.7048/0.6920) , 0.6984 (50%) and at 0.6998 (61.8%). The short term momentum indicators are a little oversold so some consolidation would not surprise but selling rallies remains the overall theme.

NzdUsd: The Kiwi remains heavy but is currently hanging on to support seen at 0.6600. The 4 hour/daily charts suggest further downside momentum, and a break of 0.6600 would all for a move towards 0.6578 (61.8% of 0.6487/0.6726) and then to 0.6555 (minor) and to 0.6543 (76.4%). Selling rallies now seems to be the plan, where resistance should arrive at 0.6630/40, 0.6670, 0.6695 (100 DMA)/0.6705 (200 DMA). A mild short squeeze is possible but I don think will be very strong, and eventually lower levels seem likely.

*Trade of the day: July 10, 2019; 7:09 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1240. SL @ 1.1285, TP @ 1.1180

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1150. SL @ 1.1115, TP @ 1.1310

Buy US$Jpy @108.65. SL @ 108.25, TP @ 109.35

Buy UsdChf @0.9910. SL @ 0.9880, TP @ 0.9995

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6945. SL @ 0.6985, TP @ 0.6870