10 Nov: Welcome to the new world order! A roller coaster start has ended with sentiment currently positive.

By | November 9, 2016

It’s a whole new world out there today! In terms of markets we cannot complain about the lack of two-way volatility, and plenty of fortunes will have been made and lost.  We can probably expect more of the same over the next couple of months as the Trump transition to power takes place, and it looks like being a wild ride into the end of the year, with the December FOMC Meeting still to come. At the end of the Wednesday session it has been a roller coaster ride, following Trumps conciliatory speech, and US Treasury yields have soared, taking the dollar and stocks along in their wake, while Gold, after screaming higher has now reversed all those gains and more by the end of the session. All up, this is not a market for the position takers and it will be the intra-day traders who will be to the fore until the current volatility subsides.

There is very little data due today which is probably just as well as no one would notice. The Feds Williams/ Bullard will be speaking.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0911
Res  1.0965  1.1000  1.1045
Sup  1.0880  1.0850  1.0820
USDJPY: 105.88
Res  106.00  106.50  106.75
Sup  105.50  105.00  104.65
GBPUSD: 1.2424
Res  1.2475  1.2505  1.2555
Sup  1.2400  1.2345  1.2300
USDCHF: 0.9844
Res  0.9845  0.9900  0.9950
Sup  0.9810  0.9775  0.9735
AUDUSD: 0.7658
Res  0.7690  0.7720  0.7750
Sup  0.7635  0.7600  0.7580
NZDUSD: 0.7335
Res  0.7360  0.7400  0.7420
Sup  0.7300  0.7265  0.7220
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2159
Res  2166  2172  2192
Sup  2150  2140  2130
DJI: 18527
Res  18585  18690  18805
Sup  18400  18310  18200
ASX SPI: 5304
Res  5326  5340  5360
Sup  5280  5254  5230
GOLD: 1275
Res  1284  1290  1302
Sup  1268  1262  1246
SILVER: 18.40
Res  18.50  18.75  19.00
Sup  18.25  18.00  17.80
OIL (WTI): 45.45
Res  45.90  46.45  47.30
Sup  44.65  43.55  43.05

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2159
Resistance Support
2200 Psychological 2140 100 DMA
2191 All time high (23 Aug) 2129 (23.6% of 2028/2059)
2180 Minor 2110 (38.2% of 2028/2059) /200 HMA
2172 22 Sept high 2093/90 (50% pivot of 2028/2059) /200 DMA
2166 Session high 2078 (61.8% of 2028/2059)

Bias

Not for the feint hearted!! After collapsing to a low of 2028, we are now at session highs of 2164 and look like going higher for a retest of the all time highs at 2191. Time will tell, and it is going to remain highly volatile as Trump will now have to deliver on his promises on jobs and economy, but from a technical basis, cautiously buying dips remain favoured.sp

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium Term: Neutral

DJI Futures 18527
Resistance Support
18800 Minor 18400 Minor
18700 Minor 18310 (23.6% of 17417/18588)
18621 All time high (15 Aug) 18200 100 DMA
18600 Minor 18140 (38.2% of 17417/18588)
18588 Session high 18020/00 200 HMA /(50% of 17417/18588)

Bias

Ditto S+P A 1100 point reversal makes technical points rather irrelevant, but the short term charts seem to point to the topside!dji

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium Term: Neutral

ASX SPI 5304
Resistance Support
5400 Minor 5280 Minor
53773/8 100 DMA/(76.4% of 5488/5029) 5255 (23.6% of 5029/5325)
5360 (61.8% of 5568/5029)/Descending trend resistance 5230 200 HMA
5340 Minor 5210 (38.2% of 5029/5325)
5325 Session high 5175 (50% of 5029/5325)

Bias

Ditto S+P. After collapsing to a low of 5029, the ASX is now at session highs of 5325, and in the short term the charts hint that the index could take a look at 5360/75 resistance levels. A very nimble stance is going to be required though and the hourly charts are becoming overbought, so keep stops tight.spi

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium Term: Neutral

GOLD 1275
Resistance Support
1325 Minor 1278 200 DMA
1315 Minor 1267 Session low
1308 Minor 1262 25 Oct low/4 Oct low /28 Oct low/Rising trend support
1295 Minor 1255 Minor
1285 Minor 1246 14 Oct low

Bias

Gold perfectly reached the 1337 descending trend resistance target by spiking up to that level before collapsing just as quickly, as risk sentiment improved, to take out the recent lows and finding some support at 1267. A very nimble stance is required, although in the short term it appears to be the downside that could come under further pressure. A break below 1260 could see added acceleration towards 1250/40, below which there is not a lot to hold it up until 1210/1200.gold

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium Term: Neutral

SILVER 18.40
Resistance Support
19.35 (76.4% of 20.06/17.10) 18.25 200 HMA /(38.2% of 17.10/18.99)
18.99 Session high 18.00 3 Nov low /7 Nov low
18.92/95 (61.8% of 20.06/17.10)/100 DMA/200 WMA 17.80 (61.8% pivot of 17.10/18.99)
18.75 Minor 17.55 28 Oct low /(76.4% of 17.10/18.99)
18.50 Minor 1740 21 Oct low

Bias

Silver has been highly volatile on Wednesday but it has remained within the overall recent range, with the topside capped by the strong resistance seen at around 18.95/19.00. The charts are mixed so a cautious stance is required but the short term momentum indicators point lower so a test of 18.00 could be on the cards.silver

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium Term:  Neutral

OIL (WTI) 45.45
Resistance Support
47.32 1 Nov high 44.65 100 HMA
47.00 Minor 43.40 200 DMA
         46.55 (38.2% of 52.19/43.06)           42.98 1 Sept low
46.44 2 Nov high/100 DMA/100 WMA 42.20 (76.4% of 39.17/52.19)
45.92 Session high /200 HMA 41.75 Minor

Bias

WTI has recovered from a spike down to the strong support, seen at the previous lows at around 43.00, to finish the day back above 45.00. The short term momentum indicators are mildly more positive now so a squeeze towards 46.00.46.40 may be on the cards, but which if seen, should be strong resistance and may present a sell opportunity. The dailies still point lower and with the ongoing OPEC arguments, I still favour an eventual return to the downside.wti

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium Term:Prefer to sell rallies


EURUSD: 1.0911
Resistance Support
1.1100 (50% pivot of 11299/1.0906) 1.0906 Session low
1.1045 (38.2% of 11299/1.0906) 1.0880 Minor
1.1045 200 HMA 1.0850 25 Oct low
1.0000 (23.6% of 11299/1.0906) 1.0821 10 Mar low
1.0965 Minor 1.0775 (76.4% of 1.0521/1.1616)

Bias

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed and a very cautious stance is required. The short term charts do point a bit lower.

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

US Jobless Claims, Monthly Budget Statement, Fed Speeches, Williams and Bullard

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euro


USDJPY: 105.88
Resistance Support
104.48 21 July high 105.50 Minor
107.00 Minor 105.00 Minor
106.72 25 July high 104.72 (23.6% of 105.88/101.18)
106.54 27 July high/200 DMA 104.10 (38.2% of 105.88/101.18) /200 HMA
106.00 Minor 103.55 (50% pivot of 105.88/101.18)

Bias

After collapsing to 101.18, the dollar has reversed sharply higher in line with the soaring Treasury yields and currently sits at session highs. The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators do appear now to be aligning to point higher and trading from the long side, cautiously buying dips is favoured

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium Term:  Mildly bullish

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen


GBPUSD: 1.2424
Resistance Support
1.2600 Minor 1.2352 Session low
1.2557 4 Nov high 1.2335 200 HMA
1.2545 Session high 1.2300 Minor
1.2500 Minor 1.2275 (38.2% of 1821/1.2556)/Rising trend support
1.2480 Minor 1.2190 (50% pivot of 1821/1.2556)

Bias

Cable is in the middle of its recent choppy range and a cautious stance is required.

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term:  Neutral

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 0.9844
Resistance Support
0.9999 25 Oct high 0.9800 Minor
0.9950 Minor 0.9775 (23.6% of 0.9548/0.9843)/Session low
0.9910 Minor 0.9730 (38.2% of 0.9548/0.9843)
0.9893 (76.4% of 0.9999/0.9549) 0.9695 (50% pivot of 0.9548/0.9843)
0.9843 Session high 0.9662 (61.8% of 0.9548/0.9843)

Bias

The short term momentum indicators seem to suggest further dollar strength although the dailies are fairly flat. I prefer to be long rather than short but overall it looks set to stay choppy today.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Neutral

Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7658
Resistance Support
0.7800 Minor 0.7610 Minor
0.7777 Session high 0.7588 Daily cloud base/100 DMA
0.7720 Minor 0.7579 Session low
0.7690 100 HMA 0.7570 Rising trend support/(76.4% of 0.7441/0.7777)
0.7660 200 HMA 0.7557 28 Oct low

Bias

The Aud had a wild ride, falling from a new 7 month high (0.7777) to a low of 0.7579 before a decent bounce as risk sentiment improved, ending up right back in the middle of the recent range, leaving the outlook clouded. Further choppy trade within the 0.7550/0.7750 range seems likely in the days to come.

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term:  Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

Consumer Inflation Expectation, Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes

Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7335
Resistance Support
0.7485 7 Sept high 0.7320 100 HMA
0.7420 Minor 0.7300 Minor
0.7402 Session high 0.7260 Session low/200 HMA /(38.2% of 0.7035/0.7337)
0.7380 Minor 0.7220 (50% of 0.7035/0. 7337)
0.7360 Minor 0.7176 (61.8% of 0.7035/0. 7337)

Bias

The RBNZ cut rates by 25 bp, as expected, s the Kiwi is higher, naturally!! Now at 0.7340. The indicators are mixed and further choppy trade within the 0.7300/74.00 looks likely in the short term.

24 Hour:Mildly bearish

Medium Term:Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/Monetary Policy Statement/Press Conference

Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzd