It’s a whole new world out there today! In terms of markets we cannot complain about the lack of two-way volatility, and plenty of fortunes will have been made and lost. We can probably expect more of the same over the next couple of months as the Trump transition to power takes place, and it looks like being a wild ride into the end of the year, with the December FOMC Meeting still to come. At the end of the Wednesday session it has been a roller coaster ride, following Trumps conciliatory speech, and US Treasury yields have soared, taking the dollar and stocks along in their wake, while Gold, after screaming higher has now reversed all those gains and more by the end of the session. All up, this is not a market for the position takers and it will be the intra-day traders who will be to the fore until the current volatility subsides.
There is very little data due today which is probably just as well as no one would notice. The Feds Williams/ Bullard will be speaking.
CURRENCIES | |||
---|---|---|---|
EURUSD: 1.0911 | |||
Res | 1.0965 | 1.1000 | 1.1045 |
Sup | 1.0880 | 1.0850 | 1.0820 |
USDJPY: 105.88 | |||
Res | 106.00 | 106.50 | 106.75 |
Sup | 105.50 | 105.00 | 104.65 |
GBPUSD: 1.2424 | |||
Res | 1.2475 | 1.2505 | 1.2555 |
Sup | 1.2400 | 1.2345 | 1.2300 |
USDCHF: 0.9844 | |||
Res | 0.9845 | 0.9900 | 0.9950 |
Sup | 0.9810 | 0.9775 | 0.9735 |
AUDUSD: 0.7658 | |||
Res | 0.7690 | 0.7720 | 0.7750 |
Sup | 0.7635 | 0.7600 | 0.7580 |
NZDUSD: 0.7335 | |||
Res | 0.7360 | 0.7400 | 0.7420 |
Sup | 0.7300 | 0.7265 | 0.7220 |
INDICES / COMMODITIES | |||
---|---|---|---|
S+P: 2159 | |||
Res | 2166 | 2172 | 2192 |
Sup | 2150 | 2140 | 2130 |
DJI: 18527 | |||
Res | 18585 | 18690 | 18805 |
Sup | 18400 | 18310 | 18200 |
ASX SPI: 5304 | |||
Res | 5326 | 5340 | 5360 |
Sup | 5280 | 5254 | 5230 |
GOLD: 1275 | |||
Res | 1284 | 1290 | 1302 |
Sup | 1268 | 1262 | 1246 |
SILVER: 18.40 | |||
Res | 18.50 | 18.75 | 19.00 |
Sup | 18.25 | 18.00 | 17.80 |
OIL (WTI): 45.45 | |||
Res | 45.90 | 46.45 | 47.30 |
Sup | 44.65 | 43.55 | 43.05 |
EURUSD: 1.0911 |
Resistance | Support | ||
1.1100 | (50% pivot of 11299/1.0906) | 1.0906 | Session low |
1.1045 | (38.2% of 11299/1.0906) | 1.0880 | Minor |
1.1045 | 200 HMA | 1.0850 | 25 Oct low |
1.0000 | (23.6% of 11299/1.0906) | 1.0821 | 10 Mar low |
1.0965 | Minor | 1.0775 | (76.4% of 1.0521/1.1616) |
Bias
The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed and a very cautious stance is required. The short term charts do point a bit lower. |
|
24 Hour: Mildly bearish |
Medium Term: Neutral |
Economic data highlights will include:
US Jobless Claims, Monthly Budget Statement, Fed Speeches, Williams and Bullard
USDJPY: 105.88 |
Resistance | Support | ||
104.48 | 21 July high | 105.50 | Minor |
107.00 | Minor | 105.00 | Minor |
106.72 | 25 July high | 104.72 | (23.6% of 105.88/101.18) |
106.54 | 27 July high/200 DMA | 104.10 | (38.2% of 105.88/101.18) /200 HMA |
106.00 | Minor | 103.55 | (50% pivot of 105.88/101.18) |
Bias
After collapsing to 101.18, the dollar has reversed sharply higher in line with the soaring Treasury yields and currently sits at session highs. The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators do appear now to be aligning to point higher and trading from the long side, cautiously buying dips is favoured |
|
24 Hour: Mildly bullish |
Medium Term: Mildly bullish |
GBPUSD: 1.2424 |
Resistance | Support | ||
1.2600 | Minor | 1.2352 | Session low |
1.2557 | 4 Nov high | 1.2335 | 200 HMA |
1.2545 | Session high | 1.2300 | Minor |
1.2500 | Minor | 1.2275 | (38.2% of 1821/1.2556)/Rising trend support |
1.2480 | Minor | 1.2190 | (50% pivot of 1821/1.2556) |
Bias
Cable is in the middle of its recent choppy range and a cautious stance is required. |
|
24 Hour: Neutral |
Medium Term: Neutral |
USDCHF: 0.9844 |
Resistance | Support | ||
0.9999 | 25 Oct high | 0.9800 | Minor |
0.9950 | Minor | 0.9775 | (23.6% of 0.9548/0.9843)/Session low |
0.9910 | Minor | 0.9730 | (38.2% of 0.9548/0.9843) |
0.9893 | (76.4% of 0.9999/0.9549) | 0.9695 | (50% pivot of 0.9548/0.9843) |
0.9843 | Session high | 0.9662 | (61.8% of 0.9548/0.9843) |
Bias
The short term momentum indicators seem to suggest further dollar strength although the dailies are fairly flat. I prefer to be long rather than short but overall it looks set to stay choppy today. |
|
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips |
Medium Term: Neutral |
AUDUSD: 0.7658 |
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7800 | Minor | 0.7610 | Minor |
0.7777 | Session high | 0.7588 | Daily cloud base/100 DMA |
0.7720 | Minor | 0.7579 | Session low |
0.7690 | 100 HMA | 0.7570 | Rising trend support/(76.4% of 0.7441/0.7777) |
0.7660 | 200 HMA | 0.7557 | 28 Oct low |
Bias
The Aud had a wild ride, falling from a new 7 month high (0.7777) to a low of 0.7579 before a decent bounce as risk sentiment improved, ending up right back in the middle of the recent range, leaving the outlook clouded. Further choppy trade within the 0.7550/0.7750 range seems likely in the days to come. |
|
24 Hour: Neutral |
Medium Term: Neutral |
Economic data highlights will include:
Consumer Inflation Expectation, Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes
NZDUSD: 0.7335 |
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7485 | 7 Sept high | 0.7320 | 100 HMA |
0.7420 | Minor | 0.7300 | Minor |
0.7402 | Session high | 0.7260 | Session low/200 HMA /(38.2% of 0.7035/0.7337) |
0.7380 | Minor | 0.7220 | (50% of 0.7035/0. 7337) |
0.7360 | Minor | 0.7176 | (61.8% of 0.7035/0. 7337) |
Bias
The RBNZ cut rates by 25 bp, as expected, s the Kiwi is higher, naturally!! Now at 0.7340. The indicators are mixed and further choppy trade within the 0.7300/74.00 looks likely in the short term. |
|
24 Hour:Mildly bearish |
Medium Term:Neutral |
Economic data highlights will include:
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/Monetary Policy Statement/Press Conference