10 Oct: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities + Trade Ideas

By | October 10, 2017

 

S&P: 2543
Preferred Strategy: Another day, another all-time high although the S+P ended a little lower in thin, holiday trade. The slow grind higher seems set to continue but I prefer to stand aside. Neutral.
24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2570 Minor 2541 6 Oct low
2565 Minor 2534 5 Oct low
2560 Minor 2530 Minor
2555 Minor 2525 (23.6% of 2445/2550)
2550 5 Oct high/Session high  – all-time high 2520 Minor


DJI: 22709
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
22950 Minor 22679 6 Oct low
22900 Minor 22594 5 Oct low
22850 Minor 22550 Minor
22800 Minor 22500 3 Oct low/27 Sept low
22750 Session high   – all-time high 22465 (23.6% of 21578/22741)


ASX SPI: 5702
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The ASX bounced strongly on Monday with a solid performance from the banking sector and a bit of M&A speculation helped to push the index higher. Overall though the ASX remains within its wide long term range and I see little to change that, so as we have said before, trading the range something like 5600/5750? continues to be the plan.  Otherwise, stand aside.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5783 13 Sept high 5691 Session low
5760 Minor 5670 Minor
5745 Minor 5659 6 Oct low
5741 Session high 5621 21 Sept  low
5725 200 DMA 5607 29 Aug low


XAUUSD: 1284
Preferred Strategy: Gold appears to have found a bit of a base at 1261 after Friday’s NFP release and the charts do suggest that we could see a further squeeze towards 1295/1300. For the time being a neutral stance is probably required, with support now seen at the 100 DMA at around 1270.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
1315 Minor 1275 Minor
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1270 100 DMA
1297 (38.2% of 1357/1261) 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)
1290 29 Sept high 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA
1285 Session high 1245 Minor


XAGUSD: 16.95
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold. Silver also seems to have turned a corner and could see a retest of resistance levels above 17.00. Minor support should now arrive at  16.70/75.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.77 Session low
17.25 (50% of 18.21/16.33) 16.70 200 HMA
17.10 200 DMA 16.50 Minor
17.05 (38.2% of 18.21/16.33) 16.33 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 15.16/18.20)
16.95/98 (23.6% of 18.21/16.55)/Session high 16.12 7 Aug low


WTI: 49.53
Preferred Strategy: WTI has had a tight range, allowing the short term momentum indicators to recover a little, although the dailies still look heavy, suggesting that selling into short term strength remains the plan. Sell WTI @ 50.25. SL @ 50.80, TP @ 49.20.
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
51.20 5 Oct high 49.18 (50% of 45.56/52.83)
50.50 (38.2% of 52.83/49.07) 49.11/07 Session low/6 Oct low
49.95 (23.6% of 52.83/49.07) 48.35 (61.8% of 45.56/52.83)
49/.70 Session high 48.00 Minor
49.45 200 DMA 47.30 (76.4% of 45.56/52.83)