10 Oct: Stocks higher after China hints at acceptance of a partial trade deal. Official talks begin today.

By | October 10, 2019

The US$ is mixed at the start of Thursday trade, while US stock indices are higher, with tech stocks leading the way in halting the 3 day losing streak after a report that China is open to a partial trade deal with the US, which once again underpinned risk sentiment ahead of the high-level trade negotiations that are due to commence today.

Elsewhere, the FOMC Minutes from most recent Fed meeting indicated most policymakers supported the need for the interest rate cut last month, although the outcome of the minutes had little market effect as traders focus now lies elsewhere – on the trade talks.

Stocks ended the day up by around xxx, while the US DXY (dollar index) was unchanged at 99.13. WTI was little changed at the end of Wednesday after a choppy session, as was Gold, which ended very slightly higher.

In Brexit news, EU downplayed the latest proposal from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, with EU Budget Commissioner, Guenther Oettinger, saying that the latest offer does “not represent a satisfactory solution”. He also insisted that Irish backstop cannot be subject to a time limit or be at risk of being vetoed by a third party. Consequently, Cable continues t trade with a downbeat tone, but within its recent range.

Asia will kick off with some secondary Japanese data (Machine Tool Orders, Machinery Orders and PPI), the NZ monthly inflation gauge and the August Australian Home Loans (exp 0.2%) and Consumer Inflation Expectation (exp 3.2%). Europe will have the German Trade Balance and the UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production although most of the focus will be on the ECB Minutes, with a dovish tone the most likely outcome. Finally the US will have the September CPI figures to provide any guidance (exp 0.1%mm, 1.8%yy; Ex F/E exp 0.2%mm/2.4%yy), along with the weekly Jobless Claims. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: Japan Machine Tool Orders, Machinery Orders, PPI, NZ Monthly Inflation Gauge, Australian Home Loans, Consumer Inflation Expectation, German Trade Balance, Current Account, China New Loans, UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production, BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech, Trade Balance, Goods Trade Balance, GDP, ECB Minutes, US CPI, Jobless Claims, Fed speakers; Kashkari, Mester.

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 99.13 (+0.00%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.586% (+3.43%), German 10Y; -0.555% (+7.02%), UK 10Y; 0.377% (+13.25%), Australian 10Y; 0.886% (-1.81%), NZ 10Y; 1.024% (+1.40 %), China 10Y; 3.12% (-0.23%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.98%, S+P; +1.16%, NASDAQ; +1.37%, EUStoxx50; +0.86%, FTSE100; +0.33%, Shanghai Composite; +0.39%,

Metals: Gold $1507 oz (+0.14%), Silver $17.75 oz (0.12%), Copper $2.5695 lb (+0.04%), Iron Ore $91.59 per tonne (NYMEX) (-2.07%),

Oil: WTI $52.70 pb (+0.27%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0972
Res  1.0985  1.1000  1.1025
Sup  1.0950  1.0930  1.0910
USDJPY: 107.52
Res  107.60  107.75  107.90
Sup  107.40  107.25  107.10
GBPUSD: 1.2207
Res  1.2270  1.2335  1.2405
Sup  1.2180  1.2120  1.2065
USDCHF: 0.9961
Res  0.9965  0.9980  0.9995
Sup  0.9950  0.9935  0.9920
AUDUSD: 0.6726
Res  0.6750  0.6770  0.6790
Sup  0.6720  0.6695  0.6670
NZDUSD: 0.6291
Res  0.6310  0.6330  0.6350
Sup  0.6280  0.6255  0.6230
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2925.03
Res  2935.00  2955.00  2975.00
Sup  2910.00  2890.00  2870.00
DJ30.fs: 26356.50
Res  26425.00  26550.00  26700.00
Sup  26245.00  26085.00  25930.00
SPI200.fs: 6564
Res  6585  6600  6615
Sup  6545  6525  6505
XAUUSD: 1507.96
Res  1510.00  1520.00  1530.00
Sup  1500.00  1490.00  1480.00
XAGUSD: 17.76
Res  17.85  17.95  18.05
Sup  17.65  17.55  17.45
WTI.fs: 52.64
Res  53.00  53.70  54.50
Sup  52.00  51.25  50.50