10 Sept: Markets rangebound apart from WTI, which is 2% higher. China CPI in focus, Tuesday.

By | September 10, 2019

It has been a relatively steady session, with little directional activity to start the week. The US$ is mixed/lower, with the risk related currencies (Aud, Nzd) trading on the firm side, while the Jpy and Chf are both soft as risk sentiment continues to improve on hope of progress in the trade talks, negating the need for the safe haven currencies. The main interest in the FX markets was in Sterling, which jumped to a 6 week high thanks to surprisingly strong data (July GDP +0.3% vs the expected 0.1%) and hopes that Britain will not crash out of the European Union without a deal. US stocks have ended flat and the main moves of the session were in the commodities, where WTI jumped by about 2% after the Saudi King appointed one of his own sons to take over as oil minister from Khalid al-Falih to run the most important ministry in the country that leads OPEC. Gold and Silver eased back by 0.5%-0.9% as the need for safe haven demand continues to diminish with the current improvement in risk sentiment.

Tuesday will look to the China CPI/PPI for guidance, (CPI; exp 0.5% mm, 1.9% yy, PPI; 0.9% yy) while the Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence is also due for release. The rest of the session is pretty thin though, with just the UK Unemployment (exp Headline rate 3.9%, Claimant Count +29.3K) to come ahead of the US NFIB Business Optimism Index. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory will also be released and will provide the usual volatility in WTI.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: NZ Credit Card Spending, Electronic Card Retail Sales, Australian NAB Business Confidence/Conditions, China CPI, PPI, New Loans, UK Unemployment, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 98.31 (+0.31%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.635% (+4.64%), German 10Y; -0.585% (+7.63%), UK 10Y; +0.518% (+20.1%), Australian 10Y; 1.039% (-5.62%), NZ 10Y; 1.135% (-1.73 %), China 10Y; 3.019% (-0.65%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.14%, S+P; -0.01%, NASDAQ; -0.19%, EUStoxx50; -0.17%, FTSE100; -0.64%, Shanghai Composite; +0.84%,

Metals: Gold $1499 oz (-0.53%), Silver $18.01 oz (-0.92%), Copper $2.627 lb (-0.13%), Iron Ore $91.23 per tonne (NYMEX) (+2.00%),

Oil: WTI $57.95 pb (+2.39%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1048
Res  1.1075  1.1100  1.1125
Sup  1.1025  1.1000  1.0975
USDJPY: 107.19
Res  107.25  107.45  107.65
Sup  107.00  106.75  106.50
GBPUSD: 1.2346
Res  1.2385  1.2435  1.2485
Sup  1.2295  1.2250  1.2205
USDCHF: 0.9917
Res  0.9930  0.9950  0.9970
Sup  0.9900  0.9880  0.9860
AUDUSD: 0.6863
Res  0.6875  0.6900  0.6925
Sup  0.6850  0.6825  0.6800
NZDUSD: 0.6426
Res  0.6445  0.6460  0.6480
Sup  0.6410  0.6390  0.6370
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2978.53
Res  2990.00  3005.00  3020.00
Sup  2965.00  2950.00  2935.00
DJ30.fs: 26850.00
Res  26900.00  26980.00  27050.00
Sup  26765.00  26675.00  26575.00
SPI200.fs: 6633
Res  6650  6675  6695
Sup  6610  6585  6565
XAUUSD: 1499.57
Res  1505.00  1525.00  1515.00
Sup  1495.00  1485.00  1475.00
XAGUSD: 18.01
Res  18.40  18.65  18.90
Sup  17.95  17.70  17.45
WTI.fs: 57.97
Res  58.15  58.85  59.60
Sup  57.25  56.55  55.85