11 Apr: ECB, US CPI, FOMC Minutes fail to ignite markets. More inflation data ahead; China , Germany, US (PPI)

By | April 11, 2019

 

The major FX pairs are mixed at the end of a busy session on Wednesday, although the DXY is slightly lower. The ECB kept monetary policy unchanged, the US CPI come in mixed but pretty much in line with expectations and the FOMC Minutes showed that the Fed are unlikely to make any move on rates in the foreseeable future given the risks to the US economy from a global slowdown and uncertainty over trade policies and financial conditions.

ECB president Mario Draghi did not say anything new in his press conference although he did acknowledge that the previously mentioned downside risks are materialising.

The March headline US CPI accelerated to 1.9% yy, up from 1.5% yy and beat expectation of 1.8% yy. However, the core CPI slowed to 2.0% yy, down from 2.1% yy and missed 2.1% yy.

Elsewhere, Sterling has been choppy, with traders currently waiting on a decision from the EU leaders as to whether to grant the UK an extension to the current Brexit date. This is likely to be approved and should underpin Cable although the result at this stage is unknown.

Looking ahead, Thursday will be dominated by inflation data; this coming from China (CPI, exp -0.2%mm, +2.3%yy; PPI, exp +0.5%yy) Germany (CPI, exp +0.4%mm, +1.3%yy; HICP, exp 1.4%yy), and the US (PPI, exp 0.3%mm, 1.9%yy; Ex F/E, exp 2.4%yy). Ahead of that, the day kicks off with the NZ Food Price Index, Australian April Consumer Inflation Expectation and another speech from the RBA’s Debelle. Otherwise the day is fairly empty aside from various Fed speakers, due late in the day. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: NZ Food Price Index, Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation, China CPI, RBA’s Debelle Speech, German CPI/HICP, US PPI, Jobless Claims, Fed speakers: Clarida, Bullard, Bowman

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 96.94 (-0.08%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.467% (-1.41%), German 10Y; -0.029% (-315%), UK 10Y; 1.092% (-1.27%), Australian 10Y; 1.885% (-1.21%), NZ 10Y; 2.065% (1.98 %), China 10Y; 3.288% (-1.27%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.03%, S+P; +0.35%, NASDAQ; +0.57%, EUStoxx50; +0.51%, FTSE100; -0.05%, Shanghai Composite; +0.07%,

Metals: Gold $1308 oz (+0.3%), Silver $15.23 oz (+0.08%), Copper $2.922 lb (-0.36%), Iron Ore $92.60 per tonne (-0.13%),

Oil: WTI $64.44 pb (+0.36%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1275
Res  1.1285  1.1300  1.1325
Sup  1.1250  1.1230  1.1210
USDJPY: 110.91
Res  111.20  111.50  111.80
Sup  110.75  110.50  110.25
GBPUSD: 1.3084
Res  1.3120  1.3165  1.3200
Sup  1.3050  1.3010  1.2960
USDCHF: 1.0027
Res  1.0035  1.0050  1.0070
Sup  1.0015  0.9995  0.9975
AUDUSD: 0.7168
Res  0.7175  0.7190  0.7205
Sup  0.7150  0.7135  0.7120
NZDUSD: 0.6765
Res  0.6775  0.6790  0.6805
Sup  0.6750  0.6735  0.6715
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2895.53
Res  2900.00  2910.00  2920.00
Sup  2885.00  2875.00  2865.00
DJ30.fs: 26175.00
Res  26220.00  26280.00  26350.00
Sup  26100.00  26035.00  25970.00
SPI200.fs: 6195
Res  6210  6225  6240
Sup  6180  6160  6145
XAUUSD: 1307.95
Res  1310.00  1315.00  1320.00
Sup  1305.00  1300.00  1295.00
XAGUSD: 15.23
Res  15.35  15.50  15.65
Sup  15.15  15.05  14.95
WTI.fs: 64.43
Res  64.75  65.35  66.25
Sup  63.50  62.85  61.95