11 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 11, 2019

The FX Markets have remained mixed following a day of heavy duty data although it produced little new direction and the only real directional bias in the charts seems to come from a firmer AUD$ and a slightly softer Chf.

EurUsd has been stuck in a 1.1229-86 range, and the Head/Shoulder base still appears to be valid, despite a brief spike back below the neckline after the ECB announcement, but the target of 1.1325 remains legitimate.

As before, interim resistance remains at 1.1285 (38.2% of 1.1447/1.1182), which has capped the last two sessions, and then at 1.1315 (50% pivot of 1.1447/1.1182). Beyond 1.1325 would look towards 1.1345 (61.8% of 1.1447/1.1182) and 1.1385 (76.4%). On the downside, back below 1.1245, and the 1.1230 spike low – decent support will again be seen at 1.1200/10. Only a break of 1.1175 would renew the downside pressure, for a run towards targets likely to be at 1.1125 (20 June 2017 low), and eventually at 1.1100 and 1.1065.

AudUsd has run higher, in breaking above the 100 DMA at 0.7150 and then heading on to a high, so far, of 0.7174. Further progress, which the charts suggest is likely, would then allow a move towards the 200 DMA at 0.7205. On the downside, support will be seen at 0.7150, 0.7130 and at the 200 HMA at 0.7115. Below this, unlikely today, would find bids at 0.7100/0.7090, below which would open the way to 0.7080..

The Kiwi is still holding above the support at 0.6735 (200 DMA) having squeezed up to 0.6763 on Wednesday. However the dailies look a little negative and a downside break of the 200 DMA would allow for a run down towards 0.6695 (50% pivot of 0.6424/0.6969). The upside is currently capped at the 200 HMA/23.6% of 06938/0.6718 at 0.6770, beyond which would allow room for a move back towards 0.6800 (38.2%).

US$Jpy is a little heavy on Thursday, following yields lower although the picture is mixed. The pair is currently sitting on the 100 DMA after having briefly reached 110.85 on Wednesday, but in the bigger picture the pair remains trapped between the two indicators. The picture remains neutral, but if sentiment does deteriorate, then we may see further losses, towards 110.75 (50% pivot of 109.70/111.82) and possibly towards 110.50 (61.8%). Beyond this the rising trend support at 110.25 comes into view, and with the daily charts pointing slightly lower, I suspect that this may eventually come into view. If wrong, and the pair manages to make further gains, then above 111.45/50, the 200 WMA lies at 112.05.

Note that on the crosses, AudNzd still looks as though it may be forming a base and could continue to squeeze higher. The short term momentum indicators are hinting at buying dips, where support arrives at 1.0495 (100 DMA), so keep SL in place below here, while resistance is seen at 1.0625/50.

The Aud also looks good against the other crosses. AudJpy looks bid but is at the top of the choppy range that has lasted through the first 4 months of the year and would find strong resistance at 80.00. EurAud looks more interesting and a break of 1.5700 could see a run towards 1.5600.

EurChf also looks better bid but is closing in on downtrend resistance at 1.1320. A break would look towards 1.1440 and possibly to 1.1500.  Buy dips with a SL below 1.1150 seems to be the plan.

Stocks had a steady session, and may be taking a break before heading higher although the bearish divergence seen in the daily charts may be a warning of a change in direction. The US corporate reporting season swings into action, with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo due on Friday, and given the rather pessimistic outlook I would be careful of being long up here. The charts are turning neutral but as long as we stay above the rising trend support at 2860 (S+P) and at 26000 (DJI) the uptrend remains intact. Above 2900 in the S+P may see a run towards 2940, the all-time high while the DJI target would be at 26750, above which could target 26950. A downside break of the support lines would allow for a run back to 2820/25600

WTI was pretty unchanged near trend highs, currently at 64.40. The dailies remain positive, and above 65.00, would then allow for a run towards the major target, seen at 66.80 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03) and then at 68.00. As we said previously, the S/H/S target is at 70.00.  The short term momentum indicators are suggesting caution on the topside, and if the negative risk sentiment does grow, then the upside for WTI is limited. I still prefer to be long but keep stops tight. Buy dips, with SL below 63.20.


*Trade of the day: April 11, 2019; 8:34 AM(AET)                               

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1325. SL @ 1.1390, TP @ 1.1200

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1225. SL @ 1.1185, TP @ 1.1300

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7190. SL @ 0.7210, TP @ 0.7080

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7135. SL @ 0.7095, TP @ 0.7200

Buy WTI @ 63.85. SL @ 63.20, TP @ 65.00

Sell EurAud @ 1.5840. SL @ 1.5920, TP @ 1.5650