11 Aug: Risk-off mood undermines stocks. US PPI miss keeps US$ pressured ahead of today’s CPI.

By | August 11, 2017

 

The US$ and stockmarkets are under pressure on Friday, ahead of the upcoming CPI reading, after the PPI unexpectedly fell in July by recording the biggest drop in 11 months and pointing to a further moderation in inflation that could delay any Fed interest rate hike. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 1.9%, after rising 2.0% in the year through June, and came in below expectations of a rise of up 0.1% last month and 2.2% from a year ago. The Fed’s Dudley was speaking, and was fairly non-committal on any interest rate hikes although the market seems to take a slightly dovish view of his remarks despite his outlook of continued moderate economic growth/economic strength. Stocks fell by around 1% -1.5% and look increasingly heavy, while WTI had a bearish outside day and ended down around 2%. The metals liked the weaker dollar, and Gold/Silver rallied by around 1%/1.5% respectively.

Friday is going to be all about the US CPI figure (expect; CPI, 0.2%mm, 1.2%yy; Ex Food/Energy, 0.2%mm, 1.8%yy) and until then it is going to be pretty much dead, I suspect, unless the German Inflation figure moves the Euro around (exp; CPI, 0.4%mm, 1.7%yy; HICP 0.4%mm, 1.5%yy) or Donald Trump’s Twitter account gets busy. Let’s hope not. Japanese holiday. The RBA Governor Lowe will be speaking this morning and may attempt to send the Aud$ lower. Have a good weekend.

The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1769
Res  1.1785  1.1800  1.1825
Sup  1.1730  1.1705  1.1685
USDJPY: 109.12
Res  109.50  109.80  110.15
Sup  109.00  108.80  108.50
GBPUSD: 1.2974
Res  1.3000  1.3025  1.3060
Sup  1.2950  1.2930  1.2900
USDCHF: 0.9622
Res  0.9640  0.9655  0.9675
Sup  0.9610  0.9600  0.9585
AUDUSD: 0.7872
Res  0.7900  0.7915  0.7945
Sup  0.7855  0.7835  0.7800
NZDUSD: 0.7269
Res  0.7300  0.7325  0.7340
Sup  0.7250  0.7225  0.7200
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2434
Res  2450  2460  2470
Sup  2420  2410  2400
DJI: 21809
Res  21900  22000  22135
Sup  21735  21665  21550
ASX SPI: 5633
Res  5665  5685  5700
Sup  5610  5590  5575
XAUUSD: 1286
Res  1295  1290  1300
Sup  1280  1275  1270
XAGUSD: 17.11
Res  17.25  17.45  17.60
Sup  17.00  16.85  16.75
WTI: 48.48
Res  48.95  49.55  50.20
Sup  48.20  47.80  47.30