11 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 11, 2017

 

S&P: 2651
The S&P is turned higher on Friday, and with the momentum indicators now generally aligned to the topside, another run towards the all-time high at 2664 may be on the cards.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact and continuing to buy dips seems to be the plan. Leave a SL below 2620.
Resistance Support
2675 Minor 2237 Friday low
2670 Minor 2630 Minor
2664 4 Dec high     – all-time high 2620 6 Dec low
2655 Minor 2615 Minor
2651 Friday high 2605 (23.6% of 2415/2665)


DJI: 24316
Ditto S+P.  Leave a SL at 24200 or preferably below 24050.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – Buy dips?
Resistance Support
24600 Minor 24217 Friday low
24550 Minor 24072 7 Dec low
24534 4 Dec high- all-time high 23922 1 Dec low
24386 5 Dec high 23850 Minor
24327 Friday high 23800 30 Nov low


ASX SPI: 6021
The ASX headed higher on Friday, closing at 6020, but overall it remains within the recent consolidation range of 5940/6045.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators looking constructive, another test of 0.6045 may be on the cards, above which there is a chart gap to the December 2007 low of 6102 (Monthly Chart – below).  That remains some way off and on Monday we may see a 6000/45 range-trade.
Resistance Support
6102 Dec 2007 low 6000 Minor
6080 Minor 5989 Friday low
6050 Minor 5953 7 Dec low
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5942/48 6 Dec low  /(23.6% of 5625/6046)
6023 Friday high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low


XAUUSD: 1248
Gold had a tight session on Friday – 1243/52 – in consolidating the losses of the previous session.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term indicators seem to be turning a little higher now but the dailies are pointing increasingly lower so selling rallies is preferred. Good support arrives at 1238/42, which I think will hold for now, although a break could lead to 1232 (200 WMA) and below that, to 1210/15. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1260/65 and selling into this area, with a SL above 1275 may be a plan.

Sell Gold @ 1265. SL @ 1275, TP @ 1235

Resistance Support
1289/1285 1 Dec high/100 DMA 1245/43 7 Dec low /Friday low
1277 4 Dec high /5 Dec high 1242 26 July low /(76.4% of 1205/1358)
1269 6 Dec high 1238 (50% pivot of 1122/1357)
1263 200 DMA 1232 200 WMA
1252 Friday low 1212 (61.8% of 1122/1357)


XAGUSD: 15.83
Silver had a tight session of 15.70/90 on Friday, trading right around the 200 MMA (15.80), but with the dailies looking heavy further downside seems likely in coming days.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  As with Gold, with the short term indicators looking slightly positive on Monday we could see a squeeze back to 16.00/10 but selling rallies is preferred looking for an eventual move towards 15.20 and possibly to 14.80. Currently sitting on the 200 MMA, this could continue to act as a magnate in the short term.

Sell Silver @ 16.05. SL @ 16.35, TP @ 15.40

Resistance Support
16.50 (50% of 17.38/15.64) 15.69/64 Friday low /7 Dec low
16.30 (38.2% of 17.38/15.64) 15.50 Minor
16.05 (23.6% of 17.38/15.64) 15.18 10 July low
15.90 Friday high 15.00 Minor
15.80 200 MMA 14.78  April 2016 low


WTI: 57.28
WTI settled higher on Friday, at 57.28, as stronger Chinese crude demand and fears over possible supply disruptions offset signs of rising US output. It finished roughly in the middle of the 56.52/57.76 daily range and further choppy trade below the recent 58.90 high looks likely in coming sessions.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators looking rather mixed, I prefer to remain neutral but possibly looking to buy dips for the medium term given that the weeklies still look positive and an eventual test of 60.00 should not be ruled out.

Buy WTI @ 56.60. SL @ 55.50, TP @ 58.50

Resistance Support
58.90/95 200 WMA/27 Nov high 56.95 100 HMA
58.86 1 Dec high 56.52 Friday low
58.30 4 Dec high 55.79 7 Dec low
57.89 5 Dec high 54.80 14 Nov high
         57.76 Friday high 54.50 Rising trend support