11 Jan. US$, makes mild recovery, stocks steady in quiet session. US CPI in focus. Australian R/S ahead.

By | January 11, 2019

It has been a mixed session although the US$ has generally regained some of the lost ground seen yesterday and is ending the session on a relatively firm note. US$Chf in particular looks stronger and has posted a bullish outside day. US stocks are mildly higher (+0.2%/0.3%) although reports from Macy’s and American Airlines added to fears of corporate profit growth shrinking, which was exacerbated after Apple’s sales warning last week, and ensured that further upside momentum was limited on Thursday. WTI is unchanged after a rangebound session but finished at session highs, while the metals are around 0.5% lower.

In terms of data, the US initial jobless claims dropped -17k to 216k in the week ending January 5, below expectation of 226k, while the Continuing Claims dropped -28k to 1.722M in the week ending December 29. Various Fed speakers have been in action, with Jerome Powell reiterating his previous stance that the FOMC will be willing to adjust its pace of interest-rate increases if economic conditions.

Friday is going to be busy although the main focus will be towards the end of the session when the December US CPI will be released (exp -0.1%mm, 2.2%yy; Ex F/E 0.2%mm, 2,2%yy). Ahead of that, the session will kick off with the NZ Building Permits, the Australian AIG Performance of Construction Index and Retail Sales (exp 0.3% – Dec). The UK will have the Manufacturing/Industrial Production, the November GDP (exp 0.1%mm) and the Trade Balance (exp Gbp -11.4bio), while the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey will also be released. The US, aside from the CPI will have the Monthly Budget Statement, Business Inventories and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                  

Fri: NZ Building Permits, Australian AIG Performance of Construction Index, Retail Sales, Japan Eco Watchers Survey, UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Goods Trade Balance, GDP, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US CPI, Business Inventories, Monthly Budget Statement, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1497
Res  1.1530  1.1570  1.1620
Sup  1.1480  1.1440  1.1405
USDJPY: 108.43
Res  108.50  108.75  109.00
Sup  108.20  107.95  107.75
GBPUSD: 1.2750
Res  1.2770  1.2795  1.2815
Sup  1.2730  1.2705  1.2675
USDCHF: 0.9841
Res  0.9865  0.9890  0.9920
Sup  0.9810  0.9785  0.9760
AUDUSD: 0.7185
Res  0.7200  0.7215  0.7235
Sup  0.7165  0.7145  0.7115
NZDUSD: 0.6782
Res  0.6795  0.6810  0.6830
Sup  0.6775  0.6760  0.6740
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2589
Res  2595  2610  2630
Sup  2575  2560  2545
DJ30.fs: 23898
Res  23965  24080  24215
Sup  23750  23630  23530
SPI200.fs: 5743
Res  5755  5770  5795
Sup  5720  5695  5670
XAUUSD: 1287
Res  1290  1295.00  1300
Sup  1285  1280.00  1275
XAGUSD: 15.58
Res  15.70  15.85  16.00
Sup  15.50  15.40  15.25
WTI.fs: 52.64
Res  53.20  53.95  54.70
Sup  52.00  51.30  50.60

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