11 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 11, 2017


S&P: 2423
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The choppy, sideways action continues into the new week, and a similar session today would not surprise while traders stand aside ahead of Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress, tomorrow. The longer term charts tend to point a little lower so selling into rallies, with a SL placed tight above the all-time high still remains mildly favoured for those who wish to be involved.

Resistance Support
2460 Minor 2419 Session low
2450 20 June high  –All-time high 2407/05 7 July low/6 July low
2447 26 June high 2402 31 May low /30 June low
2436 3 July high 2397 (50% of 2344/2450)
2430 6 July high /Session high 2384 (61.8% of 2344/2450)

DJI: 21352
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

Ditto S+P

Resistance Support
21600 Minor 21313 Session low
21550 Minor 21255 (23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support/6 July low
21504 3 July high  – all-time high 21110 (38.2% of 20474/21504)
21439 6 July high 20985 (50% of 20474/21504)
21399 Session high 20905 100 DMA

ASX SPI: 5676
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral

As before, the 100 DMA/200 DMA resistance/support levels continue to largely contain the price action. More choppy trade looks likely on Tuesday, although the 4 hour charts actually point a little higher, possibly to retest the session high of 5698 although I doubt we head much above here. If wrong, look for a run towards 57110/20. The longer term charts look a little doubtful on the topside, and back below Monday’s low of 5655 could see another run towards 5635 and possibly back to 5620. Sidelined.

Resistance Support
5745 4 July high 5655 Session low
5725 Minor 5635 200 DMA
5710 Minor 5622 7 July low
5698 Session high 5598 21 June low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)
5685 Minor 5575 Minor

XAUUSD: 1214
24 Hour Outlook: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  While the longer term charts hint at an eventual test of 1200 and lower, the short term momentum indicators now suggest that we are likely to see better levels to sell into. Having already seen a $10 bounce from Monday’s low, further near term gains would not surprise.

Gold fell to a low of 1205 before closing at 1214 on Monday and a near term squeeze towards 1220/25 would not really surprise, given the mildly constructive look of the short term momentum indicators.  On the downside, below the session low will find bids at 1195/97 and then again in the 1180/90 area although this looks to be delayed.

As before, good resistance lies at 1217 (100 WMA). This may act as a near-term magnate, so leave a little room above here, but looking to sell into rallies towards 1220/25 does seem to be the plan, looking for a stronger test of 1200. I would keep the SL above 1230.

Resistance Support
1241 (38.2% of 1295/1208) 1205/08 Session low /(50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1232 200 DMA /200 WMA 1195 10 March low
1229 (23.6% of 1295/1208) 1188 (61.8% pivot of 1122/1295)
1225 Minor 1180 27 Jan low
1217 100 WMA 1164/65 (76.4% pivot of 1122/1295)/ Major Rising trend support.

XAGUSD: 15.65
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral – Possibly prefer to sell rallies. As with Gold, while the dailies still point lower, possibly hoping to test Friday’s flash-crash low (14.30), the short term momentum indicators are pointing in the other direction, having recovered well from the Monday low of 15.18,  and I suspect we are now in for a test of 15.90/00 before any chance of the price turning lower once again.

The mini flash-crash took silver to 14.30 on 7 July (which MT4 have now removed from their charts), so charting it is a little tricky although the hint is that we are going to see an eventual decline back towards those levels in the days ahead. For now a neutral stance seems wise, possibly looking to sell into strength near 15.90/00, should we see it.

Resistance Support
16.35 Minor 15.50 Minor
16.22 5 July high 15.35 Minor
16.17 7 July high 15.18 Session low
15.95 (38.2% of 18.65/14.29) 15.00 Minor
15.75 Session high 14.80 Minor

WTI: 44.47
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral.

The charts are mixed on Tuesday although the hourlies are showing some minor bullish divergence, after making a new trend low of 43.63 on Monday, possibly hinting at a test of 45.00+.

The short term momentum indicators now hint at the chance of further minor gains in the session ahead, with the 7 July high of 45.40 being the immediate target. Above there would allow a run towards 46.50.

On the downside, support will be seen at Monday’s session low, although this looks unlikely to be seen again on Tuesday. If wrong, a break of 43.25 would then open the way back to 42.00/10. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, due late today, will be the key driver and until then it is likely to be fairly quiet.

Resistance Support
47.21 5 July high 44.00 Minor
46.70 Minor 43.63 Session low
46.50 6 July high 43.25 (76.4% of 42.02/47.29)
45.40 200 HMA 42.51 23 June low
44.81 Session high 42.02 21 June low