11 Jun: Markets in positive mood after US/Mexico trade truce. EU Sentix, UK Jobs data, US PPI in focus today.

By | June 11, 2019

 

Monday has been a generally choppy session with most of the attention being on the conflicting headlines with regards to a possible trade war. Having finished last week on  its lows, following the very poor US employment data, the dollar has partially recovered after Donald Trump removed the prospect of tariffs on Mexico, when an agreement on immigration was reached, although the arguments with China continue and look likely to do so until the G20 meeting, due at the end f the month. Most FX pairs are pretty much where they were yesterday although Cable tumbled after data showed that the April UK GDP contracted by -0.4%mm, much worse than the expectation of -0.1% mm.

In other markets, US stocks closed mildly higher on relief that the US/Mexico spat seems to have been settled, while WTI ended down 1.2% because of a perceived lack of commitment by Russia on how much crude production it will cut in the second half of the year. The metals also ended a little lower due to a bounce in the dollar from Friday’s post-NFP lows.

Tuesday will be fairly thin in terms of data, with little going on. In Asia, the NZ Q1 Manufacturing Sales are due (exp +2.0%qq), as are the Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence as are the China New Loans, while from Europe, the only items on the agenda are the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey and the UK Unemployment data.  The US will look to the May PPI for guidance but that covers it today.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: NZ Manufacturing Sales, Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, UK Unemployment, US PPI.

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 96.75 (+0.20%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.150% (+2.8%), German 10Y; -0.218% (+15.25%), UK 10Y; 0.840% (+3.49%), Australian 10Y; 1.482% (-0.20%), NZ 10Y; 1.745% (+2.05 %), China 10Y; 3.245% (-0.48%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.30%, S+P; +0.47%, NASDAQ; +1.05%, EUStoxx50; +0.25%, FTSE100; +0.60%, Shanghai Composite; +0.85%,

Metals: Gold $1327 oz (-0.92%), Silver $14.70 oz (-2.05%), Copper $2.6615 lb (+1.29%), Iron Ore $99.26 per tonne (NYMEX) (+1.5%),

Oil: WTI $ 53.39 pb (-1.25%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1310
Res  1.1330  1.1350  1.1370
Sup  1.1290  1.1270  1.1250
USDJPY: 108.46
Res  108.55  108.75  109.00
Sup  108.30  108.05  107.80
GBPUSD: 1.2685
Res  1.2715  1.2745  1.2775
Sup  1.2665  1.2640  1.2610
USDCHF: 0.9899
Res  0.9920  0.9940  0.9960
Sup  0.9875  0.9855  0.9835
AUDUSD: 0.6958
Res  0.6980  0.7000  0.7020
Sup  0.6940  0.6925  0.6910
NZDUSD: 0.6606
Res  0.6620  0.6630  0.6640
Sup  0.6600  0.6590  0.6575
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2889.53
Res  2905.00  2915.00  2925.00
Sup  2880.00  2870.00  2860.00
DJ30.fs: 26095.50
Res  26170.00  26270.00  26350.00
Sup  26010.00  25930.00  25830.00
SPI200.fs: 6504
Res  6520  6535  6550
Sup  6490  6475  6455
XAUUSD: 1327.80
Res  1330.00  1335.00  1340.00
Sup  1325.00  1320.00  1315.00
XAGUSD: 14.70
Res  14.80  14.90  15.00
Sup  14.65  14.55  14.45
WTI.fs: 53.36
Res  53.85  54.80  55.90
Sup  52.50  51.50  50.50