Monday has been a generally choppy session with most of the attention being on the conflicting headlines with regards to a possible trade war. Having finished last week on its lows, following the very poor US employment data, the dollar has partially recovered after Donald Trump removed the prospect of tariffs on Mexico, when an agreement on immigration was reached, although the arguments with China continue and look likely to do so until the G20 meeting, due at the end f the month. Most FX pairs are pretty much where they were yesterday although Cable tumbled after data showed that the April UK GDP contracted by -0.4%mm, much worse than the expectation of -0.1% mm.
In other markets, US stocks closed mildly higher on relief that the US/Mexico spat seems to have been settled, while WTI ended down 1.2% because of a perceived lack of commitment by Russia on how much crude production it will cut in the second half of the year. The metals also ended a little lower due to a bounce in the dollar from Friday’s post-NFP lows.
Tuesday will be fairly thin in terms of data, with little going on. In Asia, the NZ Q1 Manufacturing Sales are due (exp +2.0%qq), as are the Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence as are the China New Loans, while from Europe, the only items on the agenda are the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey and the UK Unemployment data. The US will look to the May PPI for guidance but that covers it today.
Economic data highlights will include:
Tue: NZ Manufacturing Sales, Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, UK Unemployment, US PPI.
Market moves, in brief:
FX: DXY 96.75 (+0.20%)
Bonds: US10Y; 2.150% (+2.8%), German 10Y; -0.218% (+15.25%), UK 10Y; 0.840% (+3.49%), Australian 10Y; 1.482% (-0.20%), NZ 10Y; 1.745% (+2.05 %), China 10Y; 3.245% (-0.48%)
Stock Indices: DJI; +0.30%, S+P; +0.47%, NASDAQ; +1.05%, EUStoxx50; +0.25%, FTSE100; +0.60%, Shanghai Composite; +0.85%,
Metals: Gold $1327 oz (-0.92%), Silver $14.70 oz (-2.05%), Copper $2.6615 lb (+1.29%), Iron Ore $99.26 per tonne (NYMEX) (+1.5%),
Oil: WTI $ 53.39 pb (-1.25%)
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