11 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 11, 2019

The US$ has partially recovered from its lows, seen after Friday’s weak US payrolls, which convinced the financial markets that the Fed needs to act by cutting rates,  but it has been a mostly choppy session on Monday and there is little to be seen from the heat-map although stocks still look healthy. With a rather empty calendar for Tuesday, I suspect we are looking at a fairly rangebound session for most products, and any directional move is likely to come from political/trade headlines.

EurUsd: The Euro sits at 1.1310 after a choppy session, with more of the same seeming likely today in the absence of any major data. Nearby support comes in at Tuesday’s lows at 1.1290, ahead of the 100 DMA at 1.1275 and the 55 DMA at 1.1215. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.1330 and at Friday’s peak, at 1.1348. Above there would see the 200 WMA at 1.1365 and 1.1400.

US$Jpy: is at 108.40, after another tight 40 point range above 108.00 after having gapped higher at the Monday open, in recovering from Friday’s post-NFP low of 107.85 and the trend low of 107.80. The charts are mixed although the dailies may be trying to from a base to head higher, and if so, the points of resistance are seen at 108.70 (Session high) and then at 108.88 (23.6% of 112.39/107.80). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance, above which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/107.80). On the downside, support will again be seen at 108.20 (Chart Gap) and that 108.00 ahead of 107.80. This seems unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, the next target is seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low).

AudUsd:  The Aud traded within 0.7006/0.6956 on Monday, finishing on its lows, at the 200 HMA, and looking heavy in the short term charts. If it does head lower, support will arrive nearby, at 0.6950, and again at 0.6940 (50% pivot of 0.6864/0.7006). Below here would open the way to 0.6915 (61.8% of 0.6864/0.7006) and 0.6900 (0.6897 = 76.4% of 0.6864/0.7006). A rally will find offers at 0.6985/95 and at 0.7006 ahead of Friday’s high at 0.7020 and the 55 DMA at 0.7025, the 50% pivot of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7035, and then the 100 DMA/ 61.8% of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7075, ahead of 0.7100 and possibly the 200 DMA (0.7125).  

NzdUsd: The Kiwi is lower on Tuesday but is currently hanging on above 0.6600 support, a break of which would allow for 0.6587 (50% of 0.6495/0.6680), below which would open the way for a run towards 0.6565 (61.8%) and possibly towards 0.6538 (76.4%). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6630 (100 HMA), at 0.6650 (minor), ahead of 0.6665 and the Friday spike high at 0.6680. The dailies remain positive, so above here, the 200 DMA is at 0.6705 and the 100 DMA is at 0.6735 which will provide decent resistance if we see it.

———————————————————————————————————————

*Trade of the day: June 11, 2019; 8:52 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1340. SL @ 1.1375, TP @ 1.1240

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1250. SL @ 1.1215, TP @ 1.1340

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7000. SL @ 0.7035, TP @ 0.6940

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6925. SL @ 0.6890, TP @ 0.7000

Buy US$Jpy @108.10. SL @ 107.75, TP @ 109.00

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6645. SL @ 0.6685, TP @ 0.6575

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6570. SL @ 0.6545, TP @ 0.6650

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.