12 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 12, 2019

It has been a steady session with little new to look at as most products have been stuck in a range but this may change today as we have CPI data from both China and the US as well as speeches from various central bankers, including Mario Draghi.

EurUsd: The Euro is a little firmer on Wednesday after a tight range of 1.1300/36 and the dailies do appear to be building up steam for further gains although the short term momentum indicators look fairly neutral. If we do head higher, on the topside, resistance will be seen at Friday’s peak, at 1.1348, where the 200 WMA also lies and thus should be strong, if we get there. Above there would allow for the 200 DMA at 1.1365 and 1.1400, above which, the target would be the 20 March high at 1.1447. On the downside, nearby support comes in 1.1300 and at Tuesday’s lows at 1.1290, ahead of the 100 DMA at 1.1270 and the 55 DMA at 1.1215. Right now I remain fairly neutral although buying dips does seem to be a plan – but with a tight SL, as a dovish Mario Draghi could hurt the Euro, later today.

DXY:  (96.75) The DXY is beginning to look increasingly heavy  although it is currently trapped between the 100 DMA at 97.00 and the 200 DMA at 96.48 and a break of either side may provide the next directional move. On the topside, above 97.00, resistance will be seen at 97.25/35 and then at 97.65 although the daily momentum indicators suggest this is unlikely to be seen in the next session or two. More likely seems to be a downside break, and below 97.50 would open the way towards 96.25, 96.00 and possibly towards the 20 March low, at 95.74. While being fairly neutral right now, it would seem that the downside could be the point of weakness, so selling rallies may be the plan.

US$Jpy: is at 108.50, after another tight 40 point range (108.35-79). The charts are mixed although the dailies may be trying to from a base to head higher, and if so, the points of resistance are seen at 108.79 (Session high) and then at 108.88 (23.6% of 112.39/107.80). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance, beyond which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/107.80). On the downside, support will again be seen at 108.35, 108.20 (Chart Gap) and at 108.00 ahead of 107.80. This seems unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, the next target is seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low).

AudUsd:  The Aud traded within 0.6946/0.6965 on Tuesday and looks fairly neutral at the start of Wednesday trade, with the WBC Consumer Confidence likely to be an early driver of direction, along with any possible dovish bias from a speech from the RBA’s Kent. On the downside, support will be seen nearby, at 0.6945/50, and again at 0.6940 (50% pivot of 0.6864/0.7006). Below here would open the way to 0.6915 (61.8% of 0.6864/0.7006) and 0.6900 (0.6897 = 76.4% of 0.6864/0.7006). 0.6900 will then be in sight, below which could eventually head towards the trend low at 0.6865, albeit probably not today. A rally will find offers at 0.6985/95 and at 0.7006 ahead of Friday’s high at 0.7020 and the 55 DMA at 0.7025, the 50% pivot of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7035, and then the 100 DMA/ 61.8% of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7075, ahead of 0.7100 and possibly the 200 DMA (0.7125). Look for another fairly rangebound day,but keep an eye on the Iron Ore Price which is now above $100 per tonne and will provide ongoing support for the Aud$ if it stays up here.

NzdUsd: The Kiwi is lower on Wednesday,  and having broken below 0.6600 it spiked down to 0.6870, pulling up just ahead of  0.6565 (61.8%) to currently sit at 0.6860. It still looks heavy though and below 0.6565/70 would target 0.6538 (76.4% of 0.6495/0.6680), 0.6525 (minor) and 0.6500. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6595 (200 HMA), 0.6620 (100 HMA), at 0.6650 (minor), ahead of 0.6665 and the Friday spike high at 0.6680. The dailies remain mildly positive, so above here, the 200 DMA is at 0.6705 and the 100 DMA is at 0.6735 which will provide decent resistance if we see it, which looks unlikely for a while.


*Trade of the day: June 12, 2019; 8:51 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1365. SL @ 1.1395, TP @ 1.1275

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1280. SL @ 1.1245, TP @ 1.1340

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6985. SL @ 0.7015, TP @ 0.6925

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6915. SL @ 0.6890, TP @ 0.7000

Buy US$Jpy @108.10. SL @ 107.75, TP @ 109.00

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6615. SL @ 0.6655, TP @ 0.6565

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6540. SL @ 0.6515, TP @ 0.6620