11 Nov: US$ firm, DJI makes new all time high as Trump settles in. Cable higher.

By | November 11, 2016

The US$ has continued its post-election rally  with the Yen under particular pressure, hurt by  rising US yields, risk appetite and the diminished need for a safe haven trade. The other star performer on the day has been Cable, which looks as though it is building the legs to head higher still. Elsewhere, the major focus has been on the Dow, which has made a new all-time high and looks as though 19000+ may not be so far away. In terms of data from the US, the  initial jobless claims dropped -11k to 254k in the week ended November 5, better than expectation of 267k, while continuing claims rose 18k to 2.04m in the week ended October 29.

There is not too much on the calendar today, which is just as well, as investors come to grips with the new administration. It is a US holiday, which will take much of the steam out of any activity although the Provisional, November Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due for release (exp 89.5). Elsewhere the main event will be the German October CPI (exp 0.2%mm, 0.8%yy; HICP exp 0.2%mm, 0.7%yy). Have a good weekend

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0888
Res  1.0925  1.0965  1.1000
Sup  1.0850  1.0820  1.0800
USDJPY: 106.80
Res  106.95  107.50  107.90
Sup  106.20  105.90  105.50
GBPUSD: 1.2564
Res  1.2585  1.2600  1.2650
Sup  1.2500  1.2450  1.2425
USDCHF: 0.9874
Res  0.9895  0.9950  1.0000
Sup  0.9840  0.9800  0.9775
AUDUSD: 0.7616
Res  0.7640  0.7665  0.7685
Sup  0.7590  0.7565  0.7555
NZDUSD: 0.7207
Res  0.7230  0.7260  0.7285
Sup  0.7175  0.7150  0.7120
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2168
Res  2180  2192  2200
Sup  2160  2148  2130
DJI: 18784
Res  18825  18900  19000
Sup  18700  18575  18390
ASX SPI: 5332
Res  5350  5370  5402
Sup  5306  5290  5270
GOLD: 1261
Res  1270  1280  1290
Sup  1258  1246  1240
SILVER: 18.63
Res  18.75  19.00  19.20
Sup  18.40  18.20  18.00
OIL (WTI): 44.55
Res  45.30  45.95  46.70
Sup  44.05  43.55  43.05
INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2168
Resistance Support
2220 Minor 2160 Minor
2210 Minor 2147/44/40 Session low/(23.6% of 2028/2180)/100 DMA
2200 Psychological 2130 Minor
2191 All time high (23 Aug) 2122 (38.2% of 2028/2180)
2180 Session high 2105 (50% of 2028/2180)

Bias

As expected, the charts saw another test to the topside, with the S+P reaching 2180 before running out of steam but holding on to most of the gains. With a US holiday today it looks likely to be quiet and with the 4 hour charts now becoming overbought the upside today should be limited. The dailies point higher though so buying dips towards 2150 is preferred.sp

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Mildly bullish

DJI Futures 18784
Resistance Support
19200 Minor 18700 Minor
19100 Minor 18575 Minor
19000 Minor 18485 (23.6% of 17417/18817)
18900 Minor 18390 Minor
18819 Session High/All time high 18285 (38.2% of 17417/18817)

Bias

The DJI is in uncharted territory after having traded up to 18819. As with the S+P, the 4 hour momentum indicators are at overbought extremes so the near term upside potential looks limited. The dailies though remain positive and buying dips towards the previous high at 18620 seems to be the plan.dji

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Mildly bullish

ASX SPI 5332
Resistance Support
5420 Minor 5305 Minor
5400 Minor 5290 (23.6% of 5029/5370)
53773/8 100 DMA/(76.4% of 5488/5029) 5270 Session low
5370 Session high )/Descending trend resistance 5250 Minor
5350 Minor 5235 200 HMA

Bias

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators both look constructive and if the 5370 top can be taken out, a quick move to 5400+ may be on the cards.  For the next session or two I prefer to be long although further out, with the weeklies still pointing lower I also like to look for rallies to sell into. I suspect we may see better levels than this to do so, so patience is a virtue!spi

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium Term: Mildly bullish

GOLD 1261
Resistance Support
1308 Minor 1262 Rising trend support
1292 Session high 1258 Session low
1288 100 HMA/200 HMA 1246 14 Oct low
1279 200 DMA 1241 7 Oct low
1272 Minor 1230 Minor

Bias

Gold tried the downside in attempting to break below the rising trend support at 1262 but this has so far held as we hold on by our fingernails. With the 4 hour charts pointing lower though I prefer to remain short, looking for a more sustained test of the 1256 session low, and beyond that towards 1240/50.gold

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium Term: Neutral

SILVER 18.63
Resistance Support
19.62 30 Sept low 18.25 200 HMA /(38.2% of 17.10/18.99)
19.50 Descending trend resistance 18.00 3 Nov low /7 Nov low
19.35 (76.4% of 20.06/17.10) 17.80 (61.8% pivot of 17.10/18.99)
18.99 9 Nov high/Session high 17.55 28 Oct low /(76.4% of 17.10/18.99)
18.92/95 (61.8% of 20.06/17.10)/100 DMA/200 WMA 1740 21 Oct low

Bias

Silver has been volatile on Thursday (18.39/98) but it has remained within the overall recent range, with the topside capped again by the strong resistance seen at around 18.95/19.00. The charts are mixed so a cautious stance is required but the short term momentum indicators point lower so a test of 18.00 could be on the cards.silver

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term:  Neutral

OIL (WTI) 44.55
Resistance Support
47.32 1 Nov high 44.41 Session low
47.00 Minor 43.40 200 DMA
         46.55 (38.2% of 52.19/43.06) 43.06 9 Nov low
46.44 2 Nov high/100 DMA/100 WMA           42.98 1 Sept low
45.61 Session high 42.20 (76.4% of 39.17/52.19)

Bias

Although fairly rangebound, (44.41/45.61), WTI has turned lower on Thursday after the International Energy Agency warned that the market risks running another surplus in 2017 without an output cut from OPEC. The dailies suggest further downside ahead and a retest of the recent lows at around 43.00 would not surprise. Selling rallies towards 45.50/46.00 with a SL above 46.50 still seems to be the plan.wti

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies


EURUSD: 1.0888          
Resistance Support
1.1081 (50% pivot of 1.1299/1. 0864) 1.0864 9 Nov low
1.1031/40 (38.2% of 1.1299/1. 0864)/ 200 HMA 1.0850 25 Oct low
1.1000 Minor 1.0821 10 Mar low
1.0968 (23.6% of 1.1299/1.0864) 1.0800 Minor
1.0952 9 Nov high 1.0775 (76.4% of 1.0521/1.1616)

Bias

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed although the short term charts do suggest that we could squeeze a little higher. With the dailies picking up downside momentum though selling into near term strength towards 1.0970/1.1000 would seem to be the plan. Good support lies in the 1.0820/50 area although below here there is little to hold the Euro up until 1.0775. Being a US/EU holiday it looks likely to be a fairly quiet end to the week.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term: Mildly bearish

Economic data highlights will include:

Remembrance Day/US Veterans Day, German CPI, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euro


USDJPY: 106.80
Resistance Support
108.37 (38.2% of 123.66/98.94) 106.20 Minor
108.00 Major Descending trend resistance 105.90 Minor
107.89 7 June high 105.58 (23.6% of 106.94/101.18)
107.48 21 July high 104.95 Minor
106.95 Session high 104.70 (38.2% of 106.94/101.18)

Bias

US$Jpy is close to session highs, under pinned by the firm Treasury yields and positive risk sentiment. Further gains would seem to lie ahead and beyond 107.00 there is not too much to stop it heading towards 108.00. Dips to 106.00/105.80, if seen, would seem to present a buy opportunity. The hourlies are becoming overbought so we may see some sideways consolidation as they unwind.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish – Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term:  Bullish

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen


GBPUSD: 1.2564
Resistance Support
1.2795 6 July low – now resistance 1.2500 Minor
1.2700 Minor 1.2450 Minor
1.2628 (50% pivot of 1.3444/1.1821) 1.2425 100 HMA
1.2600 Minor 1.2400 (23.6% of 1821/1.2556)
1.2585 Session high 1.2300 Rising trend support

Bias

Sterling has outperformed on Thursday, on the back of an upbeat tone due to the prospect of a solid US/UK relationship and hope of an improved Brexit deal, using Trump as an ally. Closing the US session at 1 month highs, the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators seem to hint at higher levels ahead, so buying dips towards 1.2500/2450 would seem to be a plan, with little technical resistance ahead until 1.2630, and beyond that, not too much before 1.2800. Gbp/Jpy in particular would seem to have good upside potential.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish – Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term:  Mildly bullish

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 0.9874
Resistance Support
0.9999 25 Oct high 0.9840 Minor
0.9950 Minor 0.9815 (23.6% of 0.9548/0.9895)
0.9910 Minor 0.9775 9 Nov low
0.9893/95 (76.4% of 0.9999/0.9549)/Session high 0.9760 (38.2% of 0.9548/0. 9895)
0.9843 9 Nov high 0.9722 (50% pivot of 0.9548/0. 9895)

Bias

The 4 hour momentum indicators seem to suggest further dollar strength although the dailies are fairly flat. I prefer to be long rather than short but overall it looks set to stay choppy today.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Neutral

Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7616
Resistance Support
0.7741 Session high 0.7588 Daily cloud base/100 DMA
0.7700 Minor 0.7570 Rising trend support/(76.4% of 0.7441/0.7777)
0.7685 100 HMA 0.7557 28 Oct low
0.7665 200 HMA 0.7530 Minor
0.7640 Minor 0.7505 13 Oct low

Bias

The Aud has had a volatile ride on Thursday, testing both sides of the ongoing range, with a European test of the topside, reaching 0.7741 before collapsing to 0.7567 in the US and then closing the day back in the middle at 0.7630. The technicals mildly favour the downside although a break of the range today would surprise. Expect another choppy one, with the chance of a move on the back of a speech from RBA Asst Gov. Debelle

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium Term:  Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

China New Loans, RBA Asst Gov Debelle Speech

Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7207
Resistance Support
0.7315 (61.8% of 0.7401/0.7175) 0.7200 Minor
0.7300 Minor 0.7176 (61.8% of 0.7035/0. 7337)/Session low
0.7285 (50% pivot of 0.7401/0.7175) 0.7150 Minor
0.7260 (38.2% of 0.7401/0.7175) 0.7120 (76.4% of 0.7035/0. 7337)
0.7230 (23.6% of 0.7401/0.7175) 0.7100 Rising trend support

Bias

As with the Aud, the Kiwi had a rocky session, and after trading up to 0.7305 it then fell sharply as US dollar strength came to the fore, reaching 0.7175 before finishing the day at 0.7210. The technicals lean to the downside and although I doubt we see it today, a move towards the rising trend support at 0.7100 would not eventually surprise.  Trading from the short side and selling rallies towards 0.7250/60 is preferred.

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

Food Price Index, Business PMI (Oct)

Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzd