11 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 11, 2019

Suddenly it is a sea of green today, based on the growing hopes of a US/China trade deal, and also on the positive vibes coming from the UK/EU after the meeting between the UK/Irish PMs hinting at the slight chance of a Brexit trade deal. Sterling has soared and looks as though it may have further to run on the topside, and note that it has made a bullish outside day against both the Euro and the Aud$, while just missing out on doing so against the Jpy and the Nzd. The daily GbpUsd charts look neutral so I would still be very cautious about having any Sterling positions over the weekend.

Elsewhere the Euro, Aud and Nzd all look constructive against the US$, while the Jpy looks heavy, which will remain the case as long as the trade talks make positive progress. The first hint that the talks have fallen over will see a sharp reversal in the fortunes of the Aud$, Nzd$ and the Jpy, in particular, so keep stops pretty tight , and be square into the weekend.

While risk sentiment looks positive, stocks remain firm, as does WTI today, while the metals look heavy as safe haven demand diminishes.

There are no trade recommendations today, ahead of the trade negotiations, although the preference is to be long the Gbp/Xs and mildly short of US$ against the Aud and the Euro. A tight stop is required and I would be square heading into the weekend.