19 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 19, 2019

Once again, there is a lot of blue on the heat-map at the end of Monday trade in what was a fairly quiet session. This reiterates the indecision that currently dominates traders thoughts, and which seems set to continue until the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday (early Thursday for Asia). This indecision would suggest that range trading will again be the theme until the Fed decision, and the technical levels remain pretty much unchanged ahead of Tuesday trade.

In the short term, EurUsd is sitting above rising trend support, currently at 1.1325, a break of which may see some minor downside momentum towards the 100 HMA (1.1315) and possibly to the 200 HMA (1.1285). If the trend holds, then expect a run towards 1.1365 (55/100DMA) and then possibly on to 1.1420.

US$Jpy also looks slightly heavy in the short term but it needs to beak 114.25 rising trend support to gain any downside momentum. In the big picture, as we said before, US$Jpy remains near the convergence of the 100 DMA/200 DMA (111.35) but bracketed by the 100 WMA (110.75/112.25) and may be a reasonable range trade. For today, 111.00/80 may cover it.

Aud$ looks mildly underpinned but is ultimately a range trade I suspect. On the crosses, AudNzd may be turning a little higher, and buying dips towards 1.0300/20, looking for a run towards 1.0400/20 although it looks like being a very slow process.

EurJpy might then be worth looking at as a possible sell, although the charts are not showing any momentum either way and I suspect conditions will just remain choppy/sideways for the next 24 hours.

Note that WTI finished Monday 0.85% higher, at one point reaching the important 59.50 level (50% of 76.87/42.23), and a test of 60.00 may not be so far away, where the next major resistance would be at 61.75 (200 DMA). In the bigger picture, WTI does appear to be breaking above the neckline of the reverse Head/Shoulders, at 58.30 and also above the 100 WMA, which lies at the same level. If this is a S/H/S formation, the target here is at around $70.00. Keep a SL below 58.00, as a failure to carry on may see a reversal to the downside as longs rush for the exit.

Stocks are mixed – stand aside – wait for the Fed – I suspect a non-committal Fed will eventually see stocks head higher..

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*Trade of the day: March 19, 2019; 10:00AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1365. SL @ 1.1395, TP @ 1.1260

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1290. SL @ 1.1265, TP @ 1.1360

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7135. SL @ 0.7155, TP @ 0.7040

Buy AudUsd @ 7075. SL @ 0.7040, TP @ 0.7100

Range Trade: US$Jpy: 110.75/112.25 (SL 30 pips either side)

Buy WTI @ 58.75. SL @ 57.75, TP @ 61.00