12 Apr: US$, yields firm after decent US jobs report. China TB ahead. US reporting season gears up later today.

By | April 12, 2019

 

The US$ has bounced back on Thursday, with the DXY now at 97.17 after another round of solid US jobs data, in which the initial claims fell by -8k to 196k, below expectation of 210k, to make the lowest reading since 1969, a 50 year low! In other US data, the March PPI rose 2.2%yy, well above the 1.9% expected (0.3%mm vs expected 0.2%) and the previous reading, also of 1.9%.  The data underpinned bond yields, pushing the US10Y back to 2.50%, which also did the dollar no harm. Although ranges have generally been tight, most of the dollar’s counterparts are slightly weaker, with the Aud$ and the Kiwi, in particular, under pressure, not helped by falls of around 1.5% in the precious metals (Gold/Silver) and by around 1% in Copper. Oil was also down 1.2%, while on the other hand Iron Ore rose by 0.9%.

US stocks were pretty much flat on Thursday as investors wait for earnings season to kick into gear, but healthcare stocks fell. The earnings season begins in earnest later today, when JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will reveal their Q1 results and are likely to provide a clue as to the health of the US economy in general and the banking sector in particular.

Looking ahead, Friday will commence with the NZ Business PMI, Visitor Arrivals (exp -1.2%) and Electronic Card Retail Sales (exp +0.7%mm), while Asia will also get to see the Australian Financial Stability Report and March China Trade Balance (exp Imports -1.3%mm; Exports +7.3%mm; TB: +$7.05 bio). Europe will be thin with just the German Wage Price Index and the EU Industrial Production (exp -0.6%mm – Feb, -1.0%yy), while the US will end the week with the March Import/Export Index (exp Imports +0.4%mm, Exports +0.3%mm) and the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (exp 98.0). Note that the US corporate reporting season heats up later today, when JPM and Wells Fargo will lead of for the banking sector – and may provide some volatility in the stock markets. Have a good weekend.

Fri: NZ Business PMI, NZ Visitor Arrivals, Electronic Card Retail Sales, Australian Financial Stability Report, China Trade Balance, EU Industrial Production, US Import/Export Index, Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index ,

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.18 (+0.27%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.50% (1.28%), German 10Y; -0.008% (72%), UK 10Y; 1.151% (+5.4%), Australian 10Y; 1.87% (-0.77%), NZ 10Y; 2.04% (-1.21 %), China 10Y; 3.285% (-0.09%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.05%, S+P; 0.00%, NASDAQ; -0.22%, EUStoxx50; +0.14%, FTSE100; -0.05%, Shanghai Composite; -1.60%,

Metals: Gold $1292 oz (-1.2%), Silver $14.97 oz (-1.75%), Copper $2.895 lb (-0.89%), Iron Ore $93.60 per tonne (+1.08%),

Oil: WTI $63.68 pb (-1.20%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1256
Res  1.1270  1.1285  1.1300
Sup  1.1245  1.1230  1.1210
USDJPY: 111.64
Res  111.80  112.00  112.20
Sup  111.50  111.30  111.10
GBPUSD: 1.3059
Res  1.3090  1.3125  1.3160
Sup  1.3030  1.3000  1.2960
USDCHF: 1.0034
Res  1.0045  1.0060  1.0075
Sup  1.0020  1.0005  0.9990
AUDUSD: 0.7123
Res  0.7135  0.7155  0.7175
Sup  0.7115  0.7100  0.7085
NZDUSD: 0.6728
Res  0.6745  0.6760  0.6775
Sup  0.6720  0.6705  0.6690
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2891.03
Res  2900.00  2910.00  2920.00
Sup  2885.00  2875.00  2865.00
DJ30.fs: 26131.50
Res  26190.00  26265.00  26350.00
Sup  26100.00  26035.00  25970.00
SPI200.fs: 6207
Res  6220  6235  6250
Sup  6190  6175  6155
XAUUSD: 1292.02
Res  1300.00  1305.00  1310.00
Sup  1290.00  1285.00  1280.00
XAGUSD: 14.96
Res  15.05  15.15  15.30
Sup  14.90  14.75  14.60
WTI.fs: 63.69
Res  64.30  64.80  65.70
Sup  63.25  62.40  61.70