14 Aug: US$ lower after another data miss in Friday’s CPI. China Retail Sales in focus on Monday.

By | August 14, 2017

 

While stocks ended pretty much flat, the US$ suffered another selloff on Friday after the slightly weaker than expected inflation data. The CPI only rose by 0.1% mm in July, below expectation of 0.2% mm. On an annual basis, the headline CPI climbed to 1.7% yy, up from 1.6% yy but also missed expectation of 1.8% yy, while the Core CPI rose 0.1% mm, below expectation of 0.2%. The other major focus remained N Korea, with traders unwilling to take on risk positions ahead of the weekend, especially after Donald trump tweeted that “military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely”. Stock markets were choppy, the metals remained firm, while WTI was under some mild downside pressure.

The coming week has plenty of data spread pretty much throughout the week although much of it is secondary and it would appear that most of the focus is going to be on the escalation of insults, or worse, between the US and North Korea. The key economic features will be the release of the Minutes from the recent meetings of the FOMC, ECB and RBA, while other key points of focus will be the China Retail Sales (Mon), the RBA Minutes, UK CPI and US Retail Sales (Tue), EU Q2 GDP (provisional) and FOMC Minutes (Wed), Australian Unemployment, EU CPI, Trade Balance and ECB Minutes (Thur). It would seem that Messrs. Trump and Jung-un are set to steal all the headlines and that risk avoidance will be the name of the game again.

The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1821
Res  1.1845  1.1860  1.1890
Sup  1.1795  1.1780  1.1750
USDJPY: 109.16
Res  109.40  109.55  109.85
Sup  108.90  108.70  108.50
GBPUSD: 1.3008
Res  1.3035  1.3060  1.3100
Sup  1.2970  1.2940  1.2925
USDCHF: 0.9618
Res  0.9640  0.9655  0.9675
Sup  0.9610  0.9600  0.9580
AUDUSD: 0.7892
Res  0.7915  0.7945  0.7965
Sup  0.7870  0.7840  0.7800
NZDUSD: 0.7316
Res  0.7325  0.7345  0.7365
Sup  0.7300  0.7275  0.7250
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2440
Res  2450  2460  2470
Sup  2430  2420  2410
DJI: 21847
Res  21900  22000  22135
Sup  21735  21665  21555
ASX SPI: 5638
Res  5665  5685  5700
Sup  5610  5590  5575
XAUUSD: 1289
Res  1295  1300  1305
Sup  1280  1275  1270
XAGUSD: 17.10
Res  17.25  17.45  17.60
Sup  17.00  16.85  16.75
WTI: 48.75
Res  48.95  49.55  50.20
Sup  48.30  47.80  47.30