12 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 12, 2017

 

S&P: 2661
The S&P is trading higher Tuesday, and with the momentum indicators now generally aligned to the topside, another run towards the all-time high at 2664 may be on the cards.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact and continuing to buy dips seems to be the plan. Leave a SL below 2630.
Resistance Support
2680 Minor 2650 Minor
2675 Minor 2645 Minor
2670 Minor 2637 8 Dec low/200 HMA
2664 4 Dec high     – all-time high 2630 Minor
2659 Session high 2620 6 Dec low


DJI: 24402
Ditto S+P.  Leave a SL at 24200.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – Buy dips?
Resistance Support
24650 Minor 24320 Session low
24600 Minor 24217 8 Dec low
24550 Minor 24072 7 Dec low
24534 4 Dec high- all-time high 23922 1 Dec low
24391 Session high 23800 30 Nov low


ASX SPI: 6021
The ASX has been rangebound (5993/6025) on Monday and it remains well within the recent consolidation range of 5940/6045. With a fair bit of data due today we may see something more directional although the momentum indicators are rather inconclusive.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators possibly looking mildly constructive, another test of 0.6045 may be on the cards, above which there is a chart gap to the December 2007 low of 6102 (Monthly Chart – below).  That remains some way off and we may see a similar 5990/6025 range today, with further bids at 5970/5950.
Resistance Support
6102 Dec 2007 low 5993 Session low
6080 Minor 5970 Minor
6050 Minor 5953 7 Dec low
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5942/48 6 Dec low  /(23.6% of 5625/6046)
6025 Session high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low


XAUUSD: 1243
Gold had a tight session on Monday – 1241/51 – in consolidating the losses of last week but is finishing at trend lows and looks heavy.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The dailies are pointing increasingly lower, and with the short term momentum indicators also running out of steam on the topside, staying short and selling rallies is preferred. Good support arrives at 1238/42, which may continue to hold ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow, although a break could lead to 1232 (200 WMA) and below that, to 1210/15. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1255/65 and selling into this area, with a SL above 1275 may be a plan.

Sell Gold @ 1250. SL @ 1270, TP @ 1230

Resistance Support
1289/1285 1 Dec high/100 DMA 1240 Session low  /(76.4% of 1205/1358)
1277 4 Dec high /5 Dec high 1238 (50% pivot of 1122/1357)
1269 6 Dec high 1232 200 WMA
1263 200 DMA 1220 Minor
1252 Session high 1212 (61.8% of 1122/1357)


XAGUSD: 15.73
Silver had another tight session of 15.70/90 on Monday as it continues to trade right around the 200 MMA (15.80), but with the dailies looking heavy, further downside seems likely in coming days.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  We could see a squeeze back to 16.00/10 but selling rallies is preferred, looking for an eventual move towards 15.20 and possibly to 14.80. Currently sitting on the 200 MMA, this could continue to act as a magnate in the short term.

Sell Silver @ 16.05. SL @ 16.35, TP @ 15.40

Resistance Support
16.50 (50% of 17.38/15.64) 15.70 Session low
16.30 (38.2% of 17.38/15.64) 15.69/64 8 Dec low /7 Dec low
16.05 (23.6% of 17.38/15.64) 15.50 Minor
15.88/90 Session high/8 Dec high 15.18 10 July low
15.80 200 MMA 15.69/64 8 Dec low /7 Dec low


WTI: 57.97
WTI settled higher on Monday, at 57.90, underpinned by a major North Sea pipeline shot down for repair work.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower? Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators looking rather mixed, I prefer to remain neutral but possibly looking to buy dips for the medium term given that the weeklies still look positive and an eventual test of 60.00 should not be ruled out. For today, the short term momentum indicators look constructive and a sustained move above 58.00 could see another test of the November high at 59.02.

Buy WTI @ 57.25. SL @ 56.25, TP @ 59.00

Resistance Support
59.02 24 Nov high 57.30 200 HMA
58.90/95 27 Nov high 56.89 Session low
58.86 1 Dec high 56.52 8 Dec low
58.30 4 Dec high/200 WMA 55.79 7 Dec low
58.03 Session high 54.80 14 Nov high