12 Feb: Forecast: Commodities/Stock Indices + trade ideas

By | February 12, 2018

 

 

S&P: 2621
Preferred Strategy:  The S+P fell sharply again on Friday, to make a double bottom at 2530 ahead of a solid bounce, to finish the week at 2620, having reached a late session high of 2637.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:    Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The long awaited correction is in full flow, and with the medium term charts aligning lower, I don’t think we have finished it yet, despite Friday’s bounce. Looking to sell rallies, possibly near the 38.2% Fibo level at 2660, with a SL placed back above 2700 seems to be the plan. On the downside, support will be seen at Friday’s low, where the 200 DMA has proved a solid base, but below which would open 2490 and possibly 2450. The major rising trend support is currently at 2400 and may be a long term target.
Resistance Support
2662 (38.2% of 2876/2525) 2570 Minor
2650 Minor 2560 Minor
2640 Minor 2550 Minor
2630 Minor 2540 200 DMA
2637 Friday high 2530 Friday low


DJI: 24199
Ditto S+P.  The DJI  fell sharply again on Friday, to reach 23324 ahead of a solid bounce, to finish the week at 24200, having reached a late session high of 24347.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:   Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The DJI also looks heavy on the longer term charts so selling rallies is favoured, possibly near 24400/50, with a tight SL placed above 24500. Downside targets would be at Friday’s low of 23324 and the 8 Feb low of 23058, currently a long way off – or maybe not!
Resistance Support
247000 Minor 24000 Minor
24600 Minor 23800 Minor
24500 Minor 23600 Minor
24440 (38.2% of 26682/23058) 23400 Minor
24347 Friday high 23324 Friday low


ASX SPI: 5721
The ASX recovered in line with the other indices on Friday, and having fallen to 5602 it then bounced impressively to finish at 5720, but well below session high of 5782.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower – Becoming Oversold Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:   The 4 hour charts are oversold and turning higher, so further near term gains seem to be on the cards, possibly targeting the 5780 level again although this does seem a long way off right now. The dailies/weeklies are pointing sharply lower though so a return to 5600 at some stage would not surprise. This should be strong support, but below which, 5570 would attract, as would 5500 (200 WMA).

Selling rallies towards 5670/80 with a SL above 5700 could be a plan.

Resistance Support
5782 Friday high 5680 (38.2% of 5029/6113)
5760 Minor 5640 Minor
5740 Minor 5620 Minor
5725 Minor 5602 Friday low/100 WMA
5720 (23.6% of 6113/5602) 5568 (50% of 5029/6113)


XAUUSD: 1314
Gold is consolidating its recent fall and  spent Friday in a relatively tight 1311/22 range,
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  With the short term momentum indicators pointing apparently turning a little higher we may be in for a squeeze back towards 1325/30, but with the dailies pointing lower, selling rallies appears to be the plan, looking for a run back towards 1300/10 and possibly lower in the coming week.
Resistance Support
1357 26 Jan high 1311 Friday low
1345 100 MMA /5 Feb high 1308/06 (23.6% of 1123/1366) /8 Feb  low
1340 Minor 1300 Minor
1332 7 Feb  high 1285 Minor
1322 8 Feb  high /Friday high 1275 Minor


XAGUSD: 16.33
As with Gold, Silver spent Friday consolidating after its recent sharp decline, and traded a tight 16.18/45 range. The short term momentum indicators now look a little more positive and a run back towards 16.50/70 would not surprise, but with the dailies looking heavy I suspect a  test of  15.90/16.00 may lie ahead, below which opens
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:   The short term momentum indicators now look a little more positive and a run back towards 16.50/70 would not surprise, but with the dailies looking heavy I suspect a  test of  15.90/16.00 may lie ahead, below which opens the way towards 15.60 and possibly 15.20.
Resistance Support
17.25 Friday high /100 WMA 16.18 Friday low
17.00 200 WMA/5 Feb high 15.90 200 MMA
17.85 100 DMA/200 DMA 15.75 Minor
16.77 7 Feb  high 15.61 12 Dec low
16.46 8 Feb  high 15.18 10 July low


WTI: 59.01
WTI took another hit on Friday, breaking below the rising trend support at just above 60.00 and falling hard, to a low of 58.05 ahead of a decent bounce to finish the week at 59.00. The reason for the fall  was put down to  the number of oil rigs operating in the US, which  rose by 26 to 791, the highest level since April 2, 2015, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. This added to concerns that rising US oil output will offset major OPEC/Non-OPEC efforts – as part of the production-cut agreement – to rid the market of excess oil stockpiles.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Down –Becoming Oversold Daily Indicators: Down Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher – Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy:   The daily/weekly charts have plenty of room for further downside momentum and selling near term rallies remains the currently plan. Below 58.00 would allow for a run to 57.50/20 and possibly even 56.50 and 56.00 although this remains over the horizon for now. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 60.00/10, above which could see 60.75 and even 61.30, – again, some way off right now.

Selling rallies is preferred.

Resistance Support
62.06 8 Feb  high 58.05 Friday low
61.30 (38.2% of 66.63/58.05) 57.50 100 DMA
60.75 Minor 57.20 (38.2% of 42.03/66.63)
60.05 (23.6% of 66.63/58.05) 56.50 200 WMA
59.70 Minor 56.07 14 Dec low