12 Jan: US$ lower again. Stocks higher, WTI reaches 3 year high. China Trade Balance, US R/S & CPI ahead.

By | January 12, 2018

 

The US$ is under pressure again today, lower against most other currencies, with the Aud$ leading the way after yesterday’s strong Retail Sales figures. Later in the session, the ECB Minutes then underpinned the Euro after they indicated that the central bank could revisit its communication stance in early 2018, boosting speculation that they are preparing to reduce the EU monetary stimulus program. The current lack of inflation will remain a problem in bringing forward the end of QE although the ECB indicated their confidence that inflation will begin to grow. The Yen remains strong on all fronts, and it will need a strong US CPI later today to see any turnaround in the trend there, while Cable has underperformed today on renewed Brexit concerns. In other markets, after pausing for a day’s rest, the US stock indices have continued their never-ending run higher to new all-time highs, today up by around 0.5%. WTI was homing in on the long term 65.00 target, today reaching 64.75 before a late reversal on some profit taking, while Gold and Silver are pretty much unchanged after a choppy session around previous levels.

Friday will kick off in Asia with the NZ Building Permits, the Japan Trade Balance, Current Account, Eco Watchers and the China Trade Balance (exp $37 bio; Imports +13%, Exports +9.1%) and new Loans for December. There is then very little to come from Europe although it will warm up again in the US session, when the December Retail Sales (exp 0.4% mm) and the CPI are due, (exp 0.2%mm, 2.1%yy; Ex Food/Energy, exp 1.7%yy).  Have a good weekend.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2032
Res  1.2060  1.2090  1.2120
Sup  1.2015  1.2000  1.1970
USDJPY: 111.11
Res  111.40  111.80  112.00
Sup  111.05  110.85  110.50
GBPUSD: 1.3538
Res  1.3555  1.3585  1.3610
Sup  1.3515  1.3490  1.3465
USDCHF: 0.9759
Res  0.9785  0.9815  0.9845
Sup  0.9750  0.9725  0.9700
AUDUSD: 0.7892
Res  0.7900  0.7925  0.7950
Sup  0.7865  0.7845  0.7825
NZDUSD: 0.7260
Res  0.7270  0.7285  0.7300
Sup  0.7245  0.7225  0.7200
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2764
Res  2765  2770  2775
Sup  2760  2755  2750
DJI: 25492
Res  25500  25550  25600
Sup  25410  25365  25305
ASX SPI: 6019
Res  6045  6070  6090
Sup  6000  5985  5955
XAUUSD: 1322
Res  1325  1330  1335
Sup  1320  1315  1310
XAGUSD: 16.98
Res  17.10  17.20  17.30
Sup  16.90  16.80  16.70
WTI: 63.57
Res  64.00  64.75  65.00
Sup  63.40  63.05  62.55