12 July: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | July 12, 2019

It has been a fairly steady session on Thursday, and given the rather empty calendar that may be the case again today, with politics and trade war headlines likely to dictate the direction into the weekend. Overall there is very little directional bias in anything on Friday but keep an eye on the China Trade Balance and the US PPI which could create some waves.

EurUsd:  The Euro has had a choppy 40 point range on Thursday and is currently pretty much unchanged from this time yesterday. With little directional bias, a choppy session would not surprise, leaving the technical levels pretty much unchanged. As with yesterday, we are currently sitting right on the 100 DMA/200 HMA  at 1.1255, above which sellers will be seen at the session high of 1.1284 and then at 1.1300 ahead of the 200 DMA at 1.1325 (also 61.8% of 1.1411/1.1192) .Above here looks unlikely in the short term, but further gains could then see a run towards 1.1360 (76.4%) 1.1400 and the 25 June high of 1.1411, beyond which the next target is at 1.1447 (20 March high), which ties in with the Fibo level (23.6% of 1.2555/1.1106). On the downside, support will be seen at  the session low of 1.1244, at 1.1225/30 (minor) and then at 1.1200/1.1190 (1.1192; Daily cloud base). If 1.1190/1.1200 is taken out, which looks unlikely today, then we could see a move towards 1.1178 (76.4%), which ties in with the 18 June low, below which would then open the way to 1.1150 and to strong support at 1.1105/15 With the daily charts looking a little heavy I still prefer to look to sell rallies in the Euro although right now a rangebound session looks likely.

DXY:  (97.08) The DXY is unchanged on Friday and the 4 hour indicators are pointing lower, but with the daily momentum indicators still looking positive we could see further gains in the coming sessions, so cautiously looking to buy dips is preferred. On the downside, support  will arrive right here at the 100 DMA (97.09), and below 97.00 would allow for a run back to 96.85 and to the 200 DMA (96.68) ahead of 96.40 (minor) and 96.00 (200 WMA) and then at last week’s low of 95.84.  On the topside, the initial resistance will now be seen at 97.35/40 ahead of 97.59 (9 July high) and then at 97.76 (18 June high). Beyond here would then target 98.00 and the trend high at 98.37 (23 May) although that is a long way off. I still prefer to buy dips, but with a tight SL placed under the 200 DMA (96.68).

US$Jpy: US$Jpy is back at 108.40 on Friday, but not before a swift dip to 107.85 in yesterday‘s Asian session, since when it has spent the rest of Thursday recovering, and heads into Friday looking relatively underpinned. The short term momentum indicators are mixed but, as with yesterday, with the dailies still looking constructive I prefer to look for levels to buy dips. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 108.60, 108.85 and at 109.00, where option protection may make further progress difficult today. Beyond 109.00 though, minor resistance is seen at 109.10/15, above which would open 109.50 (50% of 112.40/106.78) and eventually back to 110.00. On the downside, support will be seen at 108.30 (200 HMA), at 108.15 (minor), at 108.00 and at 107.85/88 (Session low/50% of 106.78/108.98). Further targets would be at 107.61 (61.8%) ahead of 107.53 (04 July low. As before, I remain neutral on US$Jpy at these levels but prefer to look for levels to buy dips given the positive look of the daily charts, but with a SL placed below 107.50.

AudUsd:  The Aud sits at 0.6975 on Friday, pretty much unchanged from Thursday, after a tight 0.6951/87 range, and well above the 0.6910 low seen on Wednesday where it met the Fibo target at 0.6913 (61.8% of 0.6831/0.7048). With little directional bias seen in the charts today, a similar session may be in store. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6979 (50% pivot of 0.7047/0.6910), 0.6987 (Session high), at 0.6995 (61.8%), 0.7015 (76.4%) and at 0.7022 (100DMA) ahead of the 4 July high of 0.7047. The daily charts still look a bit heavy though, so a return to the downside may eventuate, where targets would be at 0.6953 (Daily cloud base/Session low ), 0.6930/35 and at 0.6910. Below 0.6900 could open the way for a return to the 18 June low of 0.6830 although that remains some way off and bids will be seen at 0.6880 (76.4%) and at 0.6850. I am neutral right now, but in the short term, buying dips may be the plan although above 0.7000 would run into increasing headwinds and I would again look to sell rallies.

NzdUsd: The Kiwi squeezed higher on Thursday, reaching 0.6688 before giving up some minor ground late in the session, to currently sit at 0.6660 (200 HMA) and with the charts looking mixed, a tight range would not surprise for Friday. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6682 (100 DMA/0.6688 (Session high)), beyond which could see a squeeze up towards 0.6707 (200 DMA) and then at 0.6720. On the downside, minor support will be seen at 0.6640/30 and at 0.6610 ahead of 0.6590/0.6600. The dailies still look a little heavy, so selling rallies at/above 0.6700 remains the medium term plan but overall a fairly neutral stance is probably wise.


*Trade of the day: July 12, 2019; 8:25 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1290. SL @ 1.1330, TP @ 1.1210

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1220. SL @ 1.1190, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7000. SL @ 0.7030, TP @ 0.6915

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6930. SL @ 0.6895, TP @ 0.7020

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6700. SL @ 0.6740, TP @ 0.6600