Monday was a busy session. The big mover in the currency market was Sterling, which formed a bullish key reversal after opening lower in Asia, and now looks as though it could be headed higher although the UK Parliamentary vote later today will decide the outcome of that.
The US$ looks rather mixed on Tuesday, but under some pressure against the commodity currencies, with both the Aud and the Kiwi looking quite positive for the next 24 hours, although that will change quickly if the Brexit vote fails to pass through parliament, which will then entail an increase in negative risk sentiment. In the meantime, AudUsd looks positive – as do the crosses, with the exception of GbpAud, where Sterling may be set to outperform. Take a look at AudCad which may have a bit of upside momentum. While positive risk sentiment rules, AudJpy also looks ok.
The DXY is a little lower today (97.20) but as we said before, the DXY daily momentum indicators remain positive, while the weeklies may also be turning a little higher. The DXY reached a high of 97.71 last Thursday, forming a double top with the 14 Dec 2018 high, but not seen previously since 20 June 2017, when the high was 97.87. This will continue to be very strong resistance, also being (61.8% of 103.82/88.25, but a break would suggest a trip towards 98.00 and possibly towards 100.15 (76.4% of 103.82/88.25). Despite Friday’s minor setback, the momentum indicators look increasingly positive for the dollar, so trading from the long side is still preferred.
Despite the Boeing fallout, the US Stock markets had a strong session on Monday and in the short term they look as though they could head higher – but again – a negative Brexit vote will sour risk sentiment and send stocks back down.
Commodities appear choppy and right now are best left alone.
*Trade of the day: March 12, 2019; 10:30 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.
Sell EurUsd @1.1285. SL @ 1.1315, TP @ 1.1175
Buy EurUsd @ 1.1200. SL @ 1.1160, TP @ 1.1280
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7090. SL @ 0.7110, TP @ 0.6970
Buy AudUsd @ 7020. SL @ 0.6990, TP @ 0.7100
Buy US$Chf @ 1.0075. SL @ 1.0025, TP @ 1.02000
Buy AudCad @ 0.9445. SL @ 0.9415, TP @ 0.9520