12 Oct: Stocks, WTI sold heavily again. Gold up on safe haven demand. China TB and German CPI in focus, Friday.

By | October 12, 2018

 

It has been another big day for the stock markets, with China leading the way lower yesterday, in closing down 5.2%, followed up by the EU indices (down 1.5/2.5%) and then by the US markets (S+P/DJI; -2.1%, Nasdaq; -1.25%). Oil followed the stock markets (WTI; -3%), while Gold found plenty of safe haven demand and closed up 2.5%. The FX markets were a little calmer although the US$ is generally heavy after the release of the US CPI which once again failed to meet expectations. The headline CPI slowed from 2.7% yy to 2.3% yy, missing the expectation of 2.4% yy. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yy, and also missed expectation of 2.3% yy. The US initial jobless claims rose 7k to 214k in the week ended October 6, missing expectation of 205k, while the continuing claims rose 4k to 1.66m in the week ended September 29.

Friday is going to be a busy session although it will be overall risk sentiment driven by stock market moves that are likely to drive the overall direction. The major events coming up will be:

 NZ Business PMI, Australian Financial Stability Report, Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes (Aug), China Trade Balance (Sept exp Imports; +2.6%, Exports; +8.9%), Foreign Direct Investment, German CPI/HICP (Sept (CPI, exp 0.4%mm, 2.3%yy; HICP, exp 2.4%yy) ), EU Industrial Production (Aug), US Import/Export Index (Sept), Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct).

I am travelling next week so the only update will be the Trend table. Have a good weekend.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1595
Res  1.1620  1.1650  1.1685
Sup  1.1570  1.1545  1.1520
USDJPY: 112.13
Res  112.30  112.55  112.85
Sup  111.85  111.65  111.35
GBPUSD: 1.3236
Res  1.3250  1.3275  1.3300
Sup  1.3210  1.3180  1.3150
USDCHF: 0.9896
Res  0.9920  0.9955  0.9980
Sup  0.9880  0.9855  0.9825
AUDUSD: 0.7122
Res  0.7130  0.7160  0.7195
Sup  0.7100  0.7070  0.7040
NZDUSD: 0.6527
Res  0.6535  0.6555  0.6575
Sup  0.6510  0.6490  0.6465
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2746
Res  2760  2780  2800
Sup  2730  2715  2700
DJ30.fs: 25188
Res  25330  25510  25680
Sup  25050  24890  24750
SPI200.fs: 5780
Res  5810  5840  5875
Sup  5755  5730  5700
XAUUSD: 1223
Res  1225  1230  1235
Sup  1220  1215  1210
XAGUSD: 14.57
Res  14.65  14.75  14.90
Sup  14.50  14.40  14.30
WTI.fs: 70.85
Res  71.25  71.85  72.50
Sup  70.45  69.95  69.50