13 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 13, 2017

 

S&P: 2668
The S&P is trading at new all-time highs on Wednesday, and with the momentum indicators now generally aligned to the topside, a continuation towards 2700 may be on the cards.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact and continuing to buy dips seems to be the plan. Leave a SL below 2650. I prefer to stand aside.
Resistance Support
2690 Minor 2661 Session low
2685 Minor 2655 Minor
2680 Minor 2650 Minor
2675 Minor 2645 Minor/200 HMA
2672 Session high      – all-time high 2640 Minor


DJI: 24540
Ditto S+P.  Leave a SL below 24300.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – Buy dips?
Resistance Support
24700 Minor 24320 11 Dec low
24650 Minor 24217 8 Dec low
24600 Minor 24072 7 Dec low
24550 Minor 23922 1 Dec low
24573 Session high – all-time high 23800 30 Nov low


ASX SPI: 6021
The ASX has been rangebound (6004/6030) on Tuesday and it remains well within the recent consolidation range of 5940/6045. The short term momentum indicators look mildly positive, the dailies rather neutral, so we may see mold positive momentum but I suspect it is more likely to remain within the range.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators possibly looking mildly constructive, another test of 0.6045 may be on the cards, above which there is a chart gap to the December 2007 low of 6102 (Monthly Chart – below).  That remains some way off and we may see a similar 6005/6030 range today, with further bids at 5970/5950.
Resistance Support
6102 Dec 2007 low 6004 Session low
6080 Minor 5993 11 Dec low
6050 Minor 5970 Minor
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5953 7 Dec low
6030 Session high 5942/48 6 Dec low  /(23.6% of 5625/6046)


XAUUSD: 1244
Gold remains heavy on Tuesday – 1237/46 – but is finishing near session highs in consolidating the losses of last week but overall it still looks heavy.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The dailies are pointing increasingly lower, staying short and selling rallies is preferred although the short term momentum indicators are looking a little more positive today and may produce a mild short squeeze. Good support arrives at 1232/37, which may continue to hold ahead for now although a break could lead to 1220/25 and below that, to 1210/15. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1250/60 and selling into this area, with a SL above 1270 may be a plan.

Sell Gold @ 1250. SL @ 1270, TP @ 1230

Resistance Support
1277 4 Dec high /5 Dec high 1238/37 (50% pivot of 1122/1357)  / Session low
1269 6 Dec high 1232 200 WMA
1263 200 DMA 1225 Minor
1252 11 Dec high 1220 Minor
1246 Session high 1212 (61.8% of 1122/1357)


XAGUSD: 15.72
Silver had another tight session of 15.61/81 on Tuesday as it continues to trade near the 200 MMA (15.80), but with the dailies looking heavy, further downside seems likely in coming days.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral  – Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look mildly positive and we could see a squeeze back to 16.00/10 but selling rallies is preferred, looking for an eventual move towards 15.20 and possibly to 14.80. Currently sitting on the 200 MMA, this could continue to act as a magnate in the short term.

Sell Silver @ 16.05. SL @ 16.35, TP @ 15.40

Resistance Support
16.50 (50% of 17.38/15.61) 15.61 Session low
16.30 (38.2% of 17.38/15.61) 15.50 Minor
16.03 (23.6% of 17.38/15.61) 15.35 Minor
15.88/90 11 Dec high/8 Dec high 15.18 10 July low
15.80 200 MMA /Session high 15.69/64 8 Dec low /7 Dec low


WTI: 57.20
WTI settled lower on Tuesday, at 57.20, with traders looking at record US exports of Crude/Nat Gas to cut long positions.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning lower? Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators now turning lower again it would seem that a continuation of the recent range may be in store.  So while retaining an overall neutral stance, possibly looking to trade the wide 55.80/59.00 range may be the plan for the next few days.
Resistance Support
59.02 24 Nov high 56.83 Session low
58.90/95 27 Nov high 56.52 8 Dec low
58.86 1 Dec high 55.79 7 Dec low
58.53 Session high 55.00 Minor
58.30 200 WMA 54.80 14 Nov high