13 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 13, 2017


S&P: 2441
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The choppy, sideways action continues although Wednesday did see a sharp squeeze higher after Janet Yellen had spoken. Further consolidation below 2450 may be in store, with the momentum indicators giving us little hint of any real directional move.  Above 2450 is blue sky territory, but until then it looks as if we are in for more choppy trade, currently using 2420 as a base, but below which could return to 2405/10.

Resistance Support
2460 Minor 2422 Session low
2455 Minor 2410 11 July low
2450 20 June high  –All-time high 2407/05 7 July low/6 July low
2447 26 June high 2402 31 May low /30 June low
2443 Session high 2397 (50% of 2344/2450)

DJI: 21482
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral

The DJI did make a new all-time high on Wednesday although the momentum indicators look a little unconvinced as to whether we are going to see any follow-through heading towards the weekend. As with the S+P I remain neutral for now.

Resistance Support
21700 Minor 21357 Session low
21650 Minor 21255 (23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support
21600 Minor 21110 (38.2% of 20474/21504)
21550 Minor 20985 (50% of 20474/21504)
21529 Session high – all-time high. 20905 100 DMA

ASX SPI: 5647
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral

As before, the 100 DMA/200 DMA resistance/support levels continue to largely contain the price action although we did see a brief downside break, to 5607, ahead of the bounce late in the day as US stocks rallied.

More choppy trade looks likely today, although the 4 hour charts actually point a little higher again , possibly to retest minor resistance at 5675/80 and even the recent highs of 5695/98 although I doubt we head much above here in the short term. If wrong, look for a run towards 57110/20. The longer term charts still look a little doubtful on the topside, and back below the 200 DMA  could see another run towards 5605/10 and possibly back to sub 5600. Sidelined.

Resistance Support
5745 4 July high 5638 200 DMA
5725 Minor 5620 Minor
5695/98 11 July high/10 July high 5607 Session low
5680 200 HMA 5598 21 June low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)
5660 Minor 5575 Minor

XAUUSD: 1219
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Gold is now chopping around in a 2120/25 range and it looks set to continue to do so today. Good resistance lies ahead, near 1230, and I mildly prefer  to sell into strength, looking for a return to 1205/10, but with a tight SL placed above 1240.
Resistance Support
1241 (38.2% of 1295/1208) 1213 Session low
1232 200 WMA 1205/08 11 July low/10 July low /(50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1229 (23.6% of 1295/1208)/200 DMA 1195 10 March low
1225 Session high 1188 (61.8% pivot of 1122/1295)
1219 100 WMA 1180 27 Jan low

XAGUSD: 15.90
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Silver reached 16.00 on Wednesday,  and if this is taken out we could see a squeeze towards the descending trend resistance , currently at around 16.35. The downside looks well protected below 15.75 and buying short term dips is mildly preferred in the short term. At the same time, I would be looking to sell into strength if we get close to the trend resistance.
Resistance Support
16.35 Descending trend resistance 15.75 Session low
16.22 5 July high 15.46 11 July low
16.17 7 July high 15.35 Minor
16.02 Session high 15.18 10 July low
15.95 (38.2% of 18.65/14.29) 15.00 Minor

WTI: 45.37
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral

WTI reached a high of 46.45 on Wednesday but quickly reversed the gains to finish at 45.40 after the release of the EIA figures. The very choppy conditions look set to continue and I have no real bias at these levels. The session high currently looks some way off, but above there we could then revisit 47.20, while on the downside, support will be seen at 45.00, at 44.30 (minor) and at 43.60/80, although this looks unlikely to be seen again on Thursday. If wrong, a break of 43.25 would then open the way back to 42.00/10

Resistance Support
47.21 5 July high 45.09 Session high
46.70 Minor 44.35 Minor
46.45/50 Session high/6 July high 43.81 11 July low
46.00 Minor 43.63 10 July low
45.50 200 HMA 43.25 (76.4% of 42.02/47.29)