13 Oct: Solid PPI leads the way for today’s US inflation data. China Trade Balance coming up.

By | October 13, 2017

 

Markets are generally steady ahead of today’s US inflation figures although today’s US data was firm. The headline PPI rose 0.4% mm, 2.6% yy in September, up from 0.2% mm and 2.4% yy in August while the. Core CPPI rose 0.4% mm and 2.2% yy, up from 0.1% mm and 2.0% in August, beating expectation of 0.2% mm, 2.0% yy. The weekly Initial jobless claims dropped 15k to 243k as the impact of the hurricanes faded and notably better than expectation of 253k. In the currency markets, the main mover has been Sterling, which jumped by more than a cent to reach an eight-day high against the dollar on the back of a report in Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper that the EU could offer Britain a two-year transitional Brexit deal. The US$ is slightly firmer while stocks are a little lower. Commodities are mixed, with the main mover being WTI, down 1.4% on the back of an IEA report which forecast further weaker global oil demand.

The release of the US CPI  (exp 0.6%mm, 2.3%yy; ex F/E, 0.2%/1.8%)and Retail Sales (exp 0.4%mm; ex-auto 0.3%) later today will be pivotal for the markets as traders make up their collective minds as to whether the Fed will or will not raise interest rates in December. Ahead of that, Asia gets to see the NZ Business PMI, the Australian Financial Stability Report and the China Trade Balance for September (exp +US$39 bio). The focus in Europe will be on the German CPI (exp 0.1%mm, 1.8%yy) but that is about it and all will depend on the US data.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1829
Res  1.1880  1.1900  1.1930
Sup  1.1795  1.1760  1.1725
USDJPY: 112.28
Res  112.55  112.80  113.00
Sup  112.00  111.80  111.45
GBPUSD: 1.3258
Res  1.3290  1.3325  1.3340
Sup  1.3220  1.3150  1.3190
USDCHF: 0.9753
Res  0.9765  0.9800  0.9835
Sup  0.9735  0.9715  0.9685
AUDUSD: 0.7820
Res  0.7835  0.7855  0.7875
Sup  0.7800  0.7785  0.7770
NZDUSD: 0.7130
Res  0.7155  0.7180  0.7200
Sup  0.7110  0.7090  0.7070
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2548
Res  2555  2560  2565
Sup  2540  2545  2535
DJI: 22792
Res  22830  22875  22950
Sup  22750  22680  22630
ASX SPI: 5757
Res  5770  5790  5805
Sup  5735  5715  5695
XAUUSD: 1293
Res  1300  1305  1310
Sup  1290  1285  1280
XAGUSD: 17.23
Res  17.30  17.40  17.50
Sup  17.05  16.90  16.75
WTI: 50.67
Res  51.40  51.75  52.40
Sup  50.30  49.50  49.05