14 Aug: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

By | August 14, 2017

I will be travelling for the next 4 weeks and the service will be limited. Daily updates, mainly trading ideas will be posted at various stages during teach session.

EURUSD: 1.1821
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy: While the short term momentum indicators look mildly positive, the dailies still point  lower although buying the US$ right now does not seem the best laid plan. For Monday, in the absence of any major data, look for a range of something like 1.1780/1.1870 to cover it.
Resistance Support
1.1950 Minor 1.1795 200 HMA
1.1910 2 Aug high 1.1780 200 WMA
1.1890 Minor 1.1748 Friday low
1.1857 (76.4% of 1.1909/1. 1688) 1.1705 Minor
1.1846 Friday high 1.1688 8 Aug  low

Economic data highlights will include:

M:  BUBA Monthly Report EU Industrial Production

T: Assumption Day Holiday, German GDP(Q2), US Retail Sales, New York State Empire Mfg Index, Import/Export Index, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

W: EU GDP, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Minutes, EIA weekly crude oil stock change

T: German Wage Price Index, EU CPI, Trade Balance, ECB Minutes, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production

F: German PPI, EU Current Account, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Labor Market Conditions, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count



USDJPY: 109.16
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The short term momentum indicators hint at a mild topside squeeze although while fears of further tension between the US and N Korea remain the focus the dollar is going to find it hard to make much of a recovery. The dailies appear to be picking up increasing downside momentum so selling rallies towards 110.00 would seem to be the plan, with a SL placed above 110.15 but looking for a return to 109.00/108.70.
Resistance Support
110.30 Minor 109.00 Minor
110.08 (23.6% of 114.50/108.73) 108.80 200 WMA
109.85 100 HMA 108.73 Friday low
109.55 Minor 108.50 Minor
109.40 Friday high 108.12 17 April low

Economic data highlights will include:

M: Japan GDP (Q2)

T: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

W:

T: Trade Balance

F:



GBPUSD: 1.3008
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Cable was choppy on Friday and would seem set to remain that way on Monday, again possibly using 1.3000 as a pivot although I still prefer to sell rallies for the medium term downtrend.
Resistance Support
1.3102 (50% of 1.3266/1.2938) 1.2970 Minor
1.3064 (38.2% of 1.3266/1.2938) /200 HMA 1.2938 Friday low
1.3052 8 Aug  high 1.2927 (50% of 1.2588/1.3267)
1.3030 Friday high 1.2900 Minor
1.3000 Pivot 1.2847 (61.8% of 1.2588/1.3267)

Economic data highlights will include:

M:

T: UK CPI, PPI, RPI

W: UK Unemployment

T: UK Retail Sales

F:



USDCHF: 0.9618
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral. The momentum indicators are mixed and a cautious stance is required but as long as political tensions remain high demand for the Swiss Franc will remain well bid against both the dollar and on the crosses.
Resistance Support
0.9772 8 Aug  high 0.9600 100 MMA
0.9725 Minor 0.9582 Friday low
0.9695 200 HMA 0.9565 (61.8% of 0.9440/0.9772)
0.9670 Minor 0.9545 Minor
0.9638 Friday high 0.9525 Minor


AUDUSD: 0.7892
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish.
Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are mixed on Monday, with the short term charts looking mildly positive, although at the same time the dailies look increasingly negative, so a cautious stance is required, with any directional move likely to come via the Chinese data.

Once again, trading from the short side, selling rallies, with a SL above 0.7945 could be a plan for Monday although I doubt that we head below Friday’s 0.7838 low today.

Resistance Support
0.7980/85 4 Aug high/200 MMA 0.7870 Minor
0.7965 Minor 0.7850 Minor
0.7945 Minor 0.7838 Friday low
0.7915 10 Aug high /200 HMA 0.7800 Minor
0.7908 Friday high 0.7782 (38.2% of 0.7328/0.8065)

Economic data highlights will include:

M:  China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Urban Investment (July)

T: New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes

W: WBC Leading Economic Index, Wage Price Index

T: Unemployment

F: China House Price Index



NZDUSD: 0.7316
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish  – Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy:  The Kiwi has recovered well from its 0.7251 Friday low and the short term momentum indicators now suggest the chance of near term gains towards 0.7370, possibly to 0.7400. The dailies though still suggest selling any near term rally for an eventual return to 0.7250, possibly lower
Resistance Support
0.7400 Minor 0.7600 Minor
0.7385 Minor 0.7274 (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7557)
0.7370 8 Aug  high/(38.2% of 0.7557/0.7251) 0.7262 18 July low
0.7355 10 Aug high 0.7251 Friday low
0.7327 Friday high 0.7215 12 July low

Economic data highlights will include:

M:  NZ Retail Sales, RBNZ Inflation Expectations

T: Global Dairy Trade Index

W: NZ PPI (Q2)

T:

F: