14 Aug: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | August 14, 2017

I will be travelling for the next 4 weeks and the service will be limited. Daily updates, mainly trading ideas will be posted at various stages during teach session.

S&P: 2440
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The short term momentum indicators hint at a further recovery from Friday’s 2430 low although the dailies remain negative and selling into strength, with a SL placed above 2475 would seem to be a plan. If the political scene deteriorates, then we could see a quick run to 2400 – and lower.
Resistance Support
2488 8 Aug  high   -All-time high 2430 Friday low
2475 Minor 2416 (50% pivot of 2344/2888)
2465 200 HMA 2412 100 DMA
2455 Minor 2402 29 June low
2445 Minor 2398 (61.8% of 2344/2888)


DJI: 21847
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Ditto S+P.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
22130 8 Aug  high  – all-time high 21788 Friday low
22025 9 Aug high 21735 (23.6% of 20474/22130) / Rising trend support
21970 200 HMA 21675 Minor
21920 Minor 21625 Minor
21882 Friday high 21525 Minor


ASX SPI: 5638
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The choppy, sideways trade continues and as we said before, the short term momentum indicators look mixed and the charts are messy so I would not be too involved right now. More of the same looks likely and the wide range of 5600/5765 look may continue to cover it in the medium term. Note that the dailies do point lower though, so out of preference I would trade it from the short side.
Resistance Support
5735 8 Aug  high 5614 Friday low
5715 Minor 5592 24 July low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)
5690 Minor 5575 Minor
5665 200 DMA 5550 Minor
5648 Friday high 5526 2 July low


XAUUSD: 1289
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The short term momentum indicators are hinting at further consolidation below 1300 although the dailies are picking up steam and a move towards 1315/25 resistance would not surprise over coming days. Much will depend on the need for safe haven assets but with Trump/Kim leading the charge it does not appear to be about to settle down.
Resistance Support
1325 100 MMA 1285 Minor
1315 (76.4% of 1375/1122) 1281 Friday low
1300 Minor 1271 (23.6% of 1205/1292)
1296 6 June high 1258  (38.2% of 1205/1292)
1292 Friday high 1250 100 DMA


XAGUSD: 17.10
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Silver had a good run higher on Friday, taking out both the 100 DMA/200 DMA before some consolidation set in. It would not surprise to see the moving averages act as a magnate on Monday but with the dailies picking up steam, a move towards the descending trend resistance/200 WMA at 17.45/55 would not really surprise in coming days.
Resistance Support
17.75 6June high 16.95 100 DMA
17. 45/55 200 WMA/Descending trend resistance 16.90 Friday low
17.32 (61.8% of 18.65/15.18) 16.75 (23.6% of 15.19/17.20)
17.20 Friday high 16.65 200 HMA
17.05 200 DMA 16.50 Minor


WTI: 48.75
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. WTI recovered from session lows below 48.00 on Friday and the short term momentum indicators now look as though we could retest 49.00+. The dailies look less certain though, and some choppy consolidation may be in store, so look for a range of something like 48.00/49.50 to cover it on Monday
Resistance Support
50.60 Descending trend resistance 47.96/92 Friday low/100 DMA
50.40 1 Aug high 47.85 26 July low
50.20 (61.8% of 55.21/42.03)/10 Aug high 47.65 Minor
49.50 200 DMA 47.20 (38.2% of 42.03/50.40 high)
48.95 Friday high 46.65 Rising trend support