14 Dec: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

By | December 14, 2017


EURUSD: 1.1825
€/Usd has traded a 1.1728/1.1830 range on Wednesday, sitting at the highs at the time of writing, with the dollar generally under pressure following the FOMC Meeting. We now await the ECB, BOE, SNB as well as the PMIs, US Retail Sales.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The ECB and PMIs will dictate the direction today but the short term momentum indicators hint that the Euro has got further upside potential, possibly targeting 1.1900/40.
Resistance Support
1.1939  1 Dec high 1.1800 100 DMA
1.1903 (76.4% of 1.1960/1.1717) 1.1760 55 DMA
1.1865 (61.8% of 1.1960/1.1717) 1.1729 Session low
1.1847 6 Dec high 1.1716 12 Dec low / Rising trend support
1.1830 Session high 1.1707 (61.8% of 1.1553/1.1943)

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                                

German/EU Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, ECB Meeting/Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference, US Retail Sales, Import/Export Index, Jobless Claims,  US Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, Business Inventories

USDJPY: 112.53
US$Jpy finished the day near its lows of 112.46 after a heavy fall following the FOMC outcome, with the $ looking heavy heading into Thursday trade.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral – Turning lower Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Although the daily charts are neutral, the short term momentum indicators look heavy on Thursday, and further downside momentum could now take the dollar back to the recent low of 111.97. I am neutral today and direction is likely to be driven through the crosses following the various CB meetings ahead of the US Retail Sales. Selling rallies towards 113.00 currently seems the plan.
Resistance Support
113.82 (76.4% of 114.73/110.83) 112.46 Session low
113.75 12 Dec high 112.30 (50% of 110.83/113.75)
113.57 Session high 111.95 (61.8% of 110.83/113.75)/6 Dec low
113.35 100 HMA 111.80 Minor
112.95 200 HMA 111.52 (76.4% of 110.83/113.75)

Economic data highlights will include:                                                               

Nikkei Mfg PMI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation

GBPUSD: 1.3416
Sterling has ignored the Brexit vote going against the Government and is finishing the day at session highs. The BOE is due later on, although no major changes are expected.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower?


Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  While the daily charts look inconclusive the short term momentum indicators are pointing to further gains for Sterling, so buying dips towards 1.3370, with a SL below 1.3310 would seem to be a plan, looking for a run back to 1.3500 and possibly towards 1.3520 – last week’s high.
Resistance Support
1.3520 8 Dec high 1.3400 200 HMA
1.3500 Minor 1.3375 100 HMA
1.3475 Minor 1.3345 Minor
1.3430/27 11 Dec high/Session high 1.3310 Session low
1.3417 Weekly cloud top 1.3303 12 Dec low

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                              

UK Retail Sales, BOE Meeting/Statement/Minutes/Vote Count/APP Facility

USDCHF: 0.9852
US$Chf has traded lower, to 0.9841, following the FOMC, and looks heavy heading into Thursday trade ahead of today’s SNB Meeting.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Although the dailies are now neutral, the short term charts are pointing lower and a test of 0.9800/0.9790 could be on the cards, below which could see a run to 0.9775. Wait for the CB meetings and go with the flow.
Resistance Support
0.9965 (76.4% of 0.1137/0.9816) 0.9841 Session low
0.9950 Minor 0.9835 100 WMA /5 Dec low
0.9935 11 Dec high /12 Dec high 0.9827 (61.8% of 0.9742/0.9977)
0.9895 200 HMA 0.9800 Minor
0.9875 Minor 0.9790 (76.4% of 0.9742/0.9977)

Economic data highlights will include:

SNB Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference

AUDUSD: 0.7635
 AudUsd is trading back to the neckline of the H/S formation after the FOMC and ahead of today’s domestic jobs data (exp +18k, 5.4%).
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:   The short term indicators are now pointing higher and depending on today’s jobs data it would seem that there is a chance of a move towards 0.7650/7670 today. In the longer term, now that US rates are at parity with Australian rates, I do not really think that the Aud has too much upside from here, and I would be looking for levels to sell into strength.
Resistance Support
0.7729 2 Nov high 0.7615 Minor
0.7700 7 Nov low 0.7600 Minor
0.7665 Minor 0.7580 Minor
0.7647  (23.6% of 0.8124/0.7501) 0.7565 200 HMA
0.7635 Neckline 0.7540 100 HMA

Economic data highlights will include:

Consumer Inflation Expectation – Dec, Unemployment –Nov, China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment – Nov

NZDUSD: 0.7022
The Kiwi has had a strong session, reaching 0.7027, closing near its highs and looking positive for further gains.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The momentum indicators are positive today and the Kiwi has a HS formation that suggests a target of around 0.7100 so buying dips would seem to be the plan.
Resistance Support
0.7115 100 DMA 0.7000 Minor
0.7100 200 DMA 0.6970 Minor
0.7075 (38.2% of 0.7557/0.6783) 0.6950 Minor
0.7050 Minor 0.6935 Minor
0.7027/30 Session high/(38.2% of 0.7434/0.6783) 0.6905 Minor