14 Feb: Firm US CPI data underpins US$, stocks, bond yields. China Trade Balance, EU Q4 GDP, US Retail Sales, PPI ahead.

By | February 14, 2019

The US$ is back on a firm note today, after yesterday’s mild correction (DXY; 97.12, +0.43%), following the stronger than expected inflation data. US headline CPI slowed to 1.6% yy in January, down from 1.9% yy but beat expectation of 1.5% yy while the core CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yy, beating expectation of 2.1% yy. Al the majors have come under downside pressure, with the Euro looking heavy and currently sitting just above its recent lows, while the Aud and the Kiwi were unable to carry on with yesterday’s gains and both look a little heavy heading into this morning’s Asian session. In other markets, US stocks are mildly higher, as is WTI, +1.6%, in hoping for a positive outcome from the trade negotiations between the US/China.

Looking ahead, the day gets off to a busy start with the NZ Food Price Index, Japan Q4 GDP, Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation and the January China Trade Balance (exp +$33.10 bio; Exports -3.2%, Imports -10.00%) all due. From EU we have the German January  Industrial Production, Preliminary GDP (exp 0.1%, 0.7%yy), Q4 EU Unemployment(exp 0.2%, 1.2%yy), EU Q4 GDP(exp 0.2%, 1.2%yy), while from the US comes the December Retail Sales (exp Ex-Autos 0.1%, Control Group +0.4%), January PPI (exp 0.1%mm, 1.4%qq), November Business Inventories (exp 0.3%) and the weekly Jobless Claims,

Economic data highlights will include:                                      

Thur: NZ Food Price Index, Japan Q4 GDP, Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation, China Trade Balance,  German Preliminary GDP, EU Unemployment, GDP, US Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1269
Res  1.1300  1.1340  1.1370
Sup  1.1260  1.1170  1.1215
USDJPY: 110.99
Res  111.10  111.30  111.45
Sup  110.75  110.55  110.40
GBPUSD: 1.2854
Res  1.2870  1.2890  1.2910
Sup  1.2830  1.2810  1.2790
USDCHF: 1.0090
Res  1.0100  1.0115  1.0130
Sup  1.0070  1.0050  1.0030
AUDUSD: 0.7091
Res  0.7105  0.7120  0.7135
Sup  0.7070  0.7085  0.7055
NZDUSD: 0.6800
Res  0.6830  0.6855  0.6885
Sup  0.6780  0.6760  0.6730
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2758.03
Res  2765.00  2780.00  2795.00
Sup  2740.00  2725.00  2710.00
DJ30.fs: 25539.50
Res  25605.00  25830.00  26025.00
Sup  25335.00  25175.00  25000.00
SPI200.fs: 6022
Res  6055  6080  6105
Sup  6000  5980  5955
XAUUSD: 1305.85
Res  1310.00  1315.00  1320.00
Sup  1300.00  1295.00  1290.00
XAGUSD: 15.58
Res  15.75  15.90  16.05
Sup  15.50  15.35  15.20
WTI.fs: 54.03
Res  54.60  55.75  56.80
Sup  53.10  52.10  51.15