14 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 14, 2019

The US$ has traded mostly sideways on Thursday and there is little new to report in the FX markets although on the crosses, Yen strength and Aud$ weakness seem set to continue. . Elsewhere, WTI reversed the fall of the previous session due to the escalation of tensions in the middle east and seems likely to remain volatile, but without too much direction heading into the weekend..

EurUsd:  The Euro is a little weaker on Friday after another rather tight range of 1.1276/1.1302, and finishing near the day’s lows. The short term momentum indicators currently look heavy although we are still sitting above decent support at 1.1270 (100 DMA), ahead of 1.1258 (38.2% of 1.1115/1.1346), 1.1230 (50% of 1.1115/1.1346), the 55 DMA at 1.1215 and 1.1205 (61.8% of 1.1115/1.1346). Back above 1.1300 would find sellers at 1.1310/15 and at 1.1340/50.  Above here looks unlikely today but if wrong, it would allow for the 200 DMA at 1.1365 and 1.1400, above which, the target would be the 20 March high at 1.1447. Right now I remain fairly neutral although the short term momentum indicators do suggest a look at the downside. Overall though I doubt that we are going anywhere too far until the FOMC meeting next week and further choppy sideways trade seems to be the likely outcome.

DXY:  (97.04) The DXY is unchanged on Friday and is still largely confined to trade between the 100 DMA at 97.00 and the 200 DMA at 96.48 and a break of either side may provide the next directional move. On the topside, above the current levels, resistance will be seen at 97.25/35 and then at 97.65. The downside support is seen at 97.50, below which would open the way towards 96.25, 96.00 and possibly towards the 20 March low, at 95.74. While being fairly neutral right now, the dailies do appear to be basing out after having been pointing lower and we may see a squeeze to the topside, but overall I think we are in for some choppy conditions ahead of next week’s FOMC Meeting.

US$Jpy: is mildly lower after another tight 40 point range (108.15-53) and seems likely to trade sideways on Friday, at least until the release of the US data. The short term momentum indicators are neutral although the dailies may be trying to from a base to head higher, and if so, the points of resistance are seen at 108.79 (Wednesday high) and then at 108.88 (23.6% of 112.39/107.80). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance, beyond which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/107.80). On the downside, support will again be seen at 108.15/20 and at 108.00 ahead of 107.80. This seems unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, the next target is seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low).

US$Chf:  has traded sideways, after having recovered  from the recent selloff to 0.9853, although the Chf has attracted some minor safe haven demand due to the heightened tensions in the middle east.  The momentum indicators generally look neutral today although the dailies do look mildly positive, and if we do see further gains, the initial resistance will arrive nearby, at 0.9965 (200 DMA), but above which could see a run towards 1.0000 and to 1.0035 (100 DMA). On the downside, minor support levels will be seen at 0.9900, 0.9880 and at 0.9850/55. Overall, buying dips is favoured.

 AudUsd:  The Aud once again traded in a heavy fashion throughout Thursday following on from yesterday’s domestic jobs data but has managed to hang on above 0.6900…so far. The daily momentum indicators seem to be turning lower and, on the downside, support will be seen nearby, at 0.6900 (76.4% of 0.6864/0.7020).  Below 0.6900 will then find buyers at 0.6880/90, below which could eventually head towards the trend low at 0.6865, albeit probably not today. A rally will find offers at 0.6935 (minor), 0.6850/60, 0.6985/95 and at 0.7000/05 ahead of last Friday’s high at 0.7020. Trading from the short side is preferred although the downside is likely to continue find support from the strong iron ore price, so the activity will be slow. Further out, a move towards 0.6600/0.6700 seems to be on the cards although much will depend on the Fed and the RBA and what monetary policy looks like further down the track.

NzdUsd: The Kiwi remained heavy on Thursday but is holding on to support at 0.6565 (61.8% of 0.6495/0.6680). It still looks heavy though and below 0.6560/65 would target 0.6538 (76.4% of 0.6495/0.6680), 0.6525 (minor) and 0.6500. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6605/0.6595 (200 HMA/100HMA), 0.6620 (minor), at 0.6650 (minor), ahead of 0.6665 and the Friday spike high at 0.6680. Selling rallies with a SL placed above 0.6620 currently seems to be the plan.

On the crosses, the main interest lies in Jpy strength and Aud weakness. AudJpy itself looks to be headed to 74.50, below which seems to have little support ahead of 72.50. Selling rallies seems to be the plan here, with a SL placed above 75.50, or preferably above 76.00.

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*Trade of the day: June 14, 2019; 6:30 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1300. SL @ 1.1335, TP @ 1.1255

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1225. SL @ 1.1195, TP @ 1.1345

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6940. SL @ 0.6980, TP @ 0.6885

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6875. SL @ 0.6860, TP @ 0.6970

Buy US$Jpy @108.00. SL @ 107.75, TP @ 109.00

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6595. SL @ 0.6625, TP @ 0.6565

Buy US$Chf @0.9900. SL @ 0.9865, TP @ 1.0020