14 May: Trade war fears escalate as China retaliates with tariffs on US goods. German CPI, ZEW in focus, Tuesday.

By | May 14, 2019

 

Stocks are sharply lower, Gold is higher and the currency markets mixed, with rallies seen in the Jpy and the Chf after China announced that it will impose higher tariffs on a range of $60 billion of US goods in retaliation for those already inflicted on China by the US. The major US indices are all ending down around 2.5%-3.0% on concerns about a full-blown global trade war, while oil is down around 1.3% on fears of declining demand. At the same time the commodity currencies are trading lower for the same reasons, and all of the above look heavy heading into Tuesday trade. US Yields are also sharply lower on Tuesday as traders eye the possibility of increased trade tensions, and in the longer term will not be helpful to the dollar although it has held its ground on Monday, with the DXY trading unchanged n the day (97.38).

Looking ahead, Tuesday will kick off with the NZ Visitor Arrivals (exp +3.0%mm – March) and the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence (exp +4/+1), while Europe will look to the German inflation figure (CPI, exp 0.5%mm, 1.5%yy; PPI, exp 1.7%yy) and the ZEW. The US is going to be rather thin, most likely concentrating on the latest trade war headlines, but the numbers will feature the US NFIB Business Optimism Index and the Import/Export Index. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory will also be released late in the day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: NZ Visitor Arrivals, Australian NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, Japan Eco Watchers Survey, Trade Balance, Current Account, German CPI/HICP, UK Unemployment, EU Industrial Production, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, Import/Export Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.38 (+0.05%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.40% (-2.75%), German 10Y; -0.07% (-59%), UK 10Y; 1.101% (-2.5%), Australian 10Y; 1.73% (-0.57%), NZ 10Y; 1.805% (-1.10%), China 10Y; 3.275% (-1.93%)

Stock Indices: DJI; xxxx%, S+P; xx%, NASDAQ; xxxx%, EUStoxx50; xxxx%, FTSE100; xxxx%, Shanghai Composite; xxxx%,

Metals: Gold $1299 oz (+1.07%), Silver $14.75 oz (-0.04%), Copper $2.7185 lb (-2.11%), Iron Ore $94.38 per tonne (NYMEX) (-0.74%),

Oil: WTI $ 60.80 pb (-1.45%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1222
Res  1.1245  1.1265  1.1280
Sup  1.1210  1.1185  1.1165
USDJPY: 109.25
Res  109.60  109.85  110.10
Sup  109.05  108.75  108.50
GBPUSD: 1.2959
Res  1.2990  1.3020  1.3050
Sup  1.2930  1.2905  1.2865
USDCHF: 1.0059
Res  1.0080  1.0100  1.0120
Sup  1.0050  1.0030  1.0010
AUDUSD: 0.6942
Res  0.6960  0.6980  0.7000
Sup  0.6930  0.6915  0.6900
NZDUSD: 0.6566
Res  0.6580  0.6600  0.6615
Sup  0.6550  0.6530  0.6510
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2806.78
Res  2815.00  2825.00  2835.00
Sup  2800.00  2790.00  2780.00
DJ30.fs: 25282.00
Res  25400.00  25545.00  25690.00
Sup  25190.00  25025.00  24860.00
SPI200.fs: 6242
Res  6255  6270  6285
Sup  6225  6210  6200
XAUUSD: 1299.70
Res  1305.00  1310.00  1315.00
Sup  1295.00  1290.00  1285.00
XAGUSD: 14.76
Res  14.85  14.95  15.05
Sup  14.70  14.60  14.50
WTI.fs: 60.82
Res  61.45  62.15  62.95
Sup  60.55  60.00  59.40

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