15 Mar: Cable lower as UK MPs vote to extend Brexit date. US$ firm, Stocks flat. BOJ Meeting, EU CPI in focus Friday.

By | March 15, 2019

 

Markets are generally mixed-to-unchanged today although Sterling is heavy after UK MPs voted overwhelmingly (412/202) to seek a 3 month delay  to extend the Brexit date, beyond 29th March, in order to allow Theresa May to attempt to negotiate more suitable divorce terms from the EU. The US$ has recovered some minor ground, with the DXY now at 96.75, which in turn has placed some downside pressure on the metals; Gold (-1.0%), Silver (1.7 %). On the other hand, WTI remains firm (+0.4%), supported by OPEC renewing its production cut pledge in the face of rising non-OPEC supply, and after the unexpectedly big drawdowns in US crude and gasoline inventories this week.  US yields are mixed (US2Y: 2.47%, 10Y: 2.63%), while stocks are unchanged.

Friday will begin with the NZ Business PMI, NZ Visitor Arrivals and the BOJ Meeting, at which no changes are expected although the Statement/Press Conference may turn out to be quite dovish, and may result in a softer Jpy. Otherwise Asia will be quiet, with just the China House Price Index and the Foreign Direct Investment on the agenda. Europe will look to the Feb EU CPI  for guidance (CPI, exp 0.3%mm, 1.5%yy; Core, exp 1.0%yy), while the US will see the Capacity Utilisation (exp 78.4%), Industrial Production (exp 0.4%mm) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (exp 95.3). Have a good weekend.

Economic data highlights will include:                                      

Fri: NZ Business PMI, NZ Visitor Arrivals, China House Price Index, BOJ Meeting/Interest Rate Decision, EU CPI, US New York State Empire Mfg Index, Capacity Utilisation, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1303
Res  1.1320  1.1340  1.1370
Sup  1.1275  1.1220  1.1250
USDJPY: 111.71
Res  111.85  112.15  112.35
Sup  111.50  111.30  111.00
GBPUSD: 1.3228
Res  1.3285  1.3300  1.3350
Sup  1.3170  1.3100  1.3035
USDCHF: 1.0041
Res  1.0075  1.0125  1.0175
Sup  1.0015  0.9975  0.9920
AUDUSD: 0.7067
Res  0.7085  0.7100  0.7115
Sup  0.7040  0.7020  0.7000
NZDUSD: 0.6823
Res  0.6845  0.6875  0.6905
Sup  0.6800  0.6770  0.6740
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2815.28
Res  2825.00  2835.00  2845.00
Sup  2805.00  2795.00  2785.00
DJ30.fs: 25705.00
Res  25805.00  25955.00  26110.00
Sup  25605.00  25470.00  25315.00
SPI200.fs: 6199
Res  6210  6225  6245
Sup  6160  6180  6140
XAUUSD: 1295.79
Res  1300.00  1305.00  1310.00
Sup  1290.00  1285.00  1280.00
XAGUSD: 15.18
Res  15.30  15.45  15.60
Sup  15.10  14.95  14.80
WTI.fs: 58.82
Res  59.00  60.00  60.85
Sup  58.00  57.00  56.00