|EurUsd is back at 1.1935; pretty much where it began the day after a range bound session. Today will be a busy one with regards the calendar, with the focus to be on the German/EU Preliminary Q1 GDP (exp +0.4% qq both for German/EU), the ZEW and the US Retail Sales (exp RS-Ex Auto +0.5%mm, Control Group +0.3%mm).|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower||Daily Indicators: Turning higher?||Weekly Indicators: Turning lower.|
|Preferred Strategy: A cautious tone is needed again today, with the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators looking rather mixed. The 4 hour charts are beginning to point lower again, while the dailies are still unwinding from the recent selloff in the Euro, so a messy session, but without too much direction would not surprise. On the topside, the Euro would run into offers again at 1.1975 ahead of another test of 1.1995/1.2000 and the 200 DMA at 1.2015. Above this, the next target would be at 1.2070 (38.2% of 1.2475/1.1822).
The 4 hour charts look a bit heavy now though and the weeklies are also pointing lower, so if we get back below 1.1890/1900 then we could see a return to 1.1840 and to 1.1815/25, where the 55 WMA/December 12 low has so far propped the Euro up. A break would find minor bids at 1.1800, below which allows for a run towards 1.1785, beneath which there is little support to be seen ahead of 1.1700/10.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.2000. SL @ 1.2050, TP @ 1.1840
Buy EurUsd @ 1.1860. SL @ 1.1810, TP @ 1.2000
|1.2015||200 DMA||1.1890||12 May low /100 HMA|
|1.1995||Session high||1.1837/42||55 WMA/11 May low|
|1.1975||(23.6% of 1.2475/1.1822)||1.1822/16||9 May low/22 Dec low|
|1.1950||Minor||1.1787||(76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555)|
Economic data highlights will include:
EU/German Preliminary Q1 GDP, EU Industrial Production – Mar, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey – May, US Retail Sales – Apr, New York State Empire Mfg Index – May, Business Inventories – Mar, NAHB Housing Market Index – may, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
|US$Jpy is firmer today but remains well within the 109/110 range, and with something similar looking likely on Tuesday. Any directional move looks likely to be seen following the release of the US Retail Sales later in the day, with all eyes firmly on the US10Y yield. (3.005%).|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed.||Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral.||Weekly Indicators: Turning higher|
|Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are mixed heading into Tuesday so a cautious stance is required, with focus currently on the direction of US yields.
The daily charts are now turning neutral and further choppy trade looks likely for much of the session below 110.00, where the double top exists. A sustained break of 110.00 would then allow for a move to 110.15/25, which should also be strong, ahead of 110.50 and 110.85 (76.4% of 114.73/104.60).
The initial support will arrive at 109.20/15 ahead of the 9 May low of 109.00. Below here, look for a return to 108.75/80 and possibly to 108.55/65 although this looks unlikely today
|110.48||2 Feb High||109.15/20||12 May low /Session low|
|110.15/25||200 DMA /(61.8% of 114.73/104.60)||108.99||9 May low|
|110.02/00||2 May high /11 May high||108.75/82||7 May low /8 May low|
|109.80||Minor||108.63/54||4 May low //24 Apr low/100 DMA|
|Cable had a choppy session to start the week in heading up to a high of 1.3607 before turning lower again and currently shows little change from where it began the day as it consolidates in the 1.35/36 range, still sitting close to the 200 DMA.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral||Daily Indicators: Possible basing formation.||Weekly Indicators: Turning lower|
|Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look mixed and a neutral stance is required. If Cable does manage a squeeze higher, near term, minor resistance will again be seen at 1.3580/85 ahead of 1.3600/10. Beyond last Thursday’s brief pre-BOE high of 1.3617, sellers would arrive at 1.3630 and the 2 May high 1.3665 although that seems some way off right now
The longer term charts still look heavy though, and below today’s base at 1.3635 would allow a retest of minor support at 1.3515 and the 12 May low at 1.3500. Under there could then head to the 8 May/trend low of 1.3485 a break of which would open the way to the January low at 1.3457 and the major Fibo level at 1.3400 (38.2% of 1.1821/1.4376)
|1.3665||2 May high||1.3536||Session low|
|1.3629||3 May high||1.3501||12 May low|
|1.3580||Minor||1.3457/60||11 Jan low /11 May low|
|1.3550||200 DMA /200 HMA||1.3398||(38.2% of 1.1822/1.4376)|
|US$Chf, fell to 0.9957 on Monday ahead of a decent bounce, reaching 1.0012 in early NZ trade, finishing nearby.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed.||Daily Indicators: Possible topping formation.||Weekly Indicators: Up|
|Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look a little more positive after the bounce off the Monday low although the dailies now look a little toppish and it maybe that the recent uptrend has now run its course, possibly with some choppy trade ahead. The weekly charts still point higher though so looking to buy dips remains the medium/longer term strategy.
If the dollar heads lower, support will again be seen at 0.9975/80, ahead of 0.9955/60 and minor levels at 0.9935/15 ahead of the 1 May low of 0.9890. This looks unlikely right now but if wrong, on a break of 0.9890, further bids should arrive at 0.9870 and at 0.9845/50.
On the topside, above 1.0015, decent resistance will be seen at the trend high of 1.0055, which looks unlikely to be taken out today, but above which would open the way to 1.0065/70, which is a major Fibo level, and to 1.0100. Further out we are potentially looking at a run up to 1.0170 and even to the December 2016 high of 1.0343 albeit probably not for a while to come.
Buy US$Chf @ 0.9960. SL @ 0.9920, TP @ 1.0100
|1.0107||Apt 2017 high||1.0000||Pivot|
|1.0099||May 2017 high||0.9975||Minor|
|1.0067||(76.4% of 1.0343/0.9187)||0.9957||Session low|
|1.0055/56||7 May high /9 May high /11 May high||0.9935||2 May low|
|1.0006||Session high||0.9890||1 May low|
|The Aud reached a high of 0.7565 before reversing lower and is finishing the day on its lows ahead of today’s RBA Minutes and China Retail Sales (exp +10%)/Industrial Production (exp +6.3%). RBA’s Debelle will be speaking shortly.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower||Daily Indicators: Turning higher||Weekly Indicators: Turning lower|
|Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are turning lower while the daily charts still look as though they may be attempting a basing formation, but with direction likely to be driven by the RBA Minutes.
If we do see another squeeze higher, minor resistance will be seen at 0.7550 ahead of the more important 0.7565/70. Above here opens up 0.7580/90 ahead of 0.7600/05. This seems unlikely to be visited today but if wrong look for further gains towards 0.7620.
The weekly charts remain heavy, and would seem to suggest further losses to come in the days ahead. If so, below 0.7520, the initial support will arrive at 0.7500 ahead of 0.7485 and 0.7450. Below minor support at 0.7435/40 would then head towards the 9 May low of 0.7411, the 11 month trend low. Below 0.7400, there really is not too much to hold it up ahead of Fibo support at 0.7385, the 1 June 2017 low at 0.7371 and the May 2017 low of 0.7328.
Longer term; Sell AudUsd @ 0.7585. SL @ 0.76250, TP @ 0.7450
|0.7620||24 Apr high||0.7522/25||12 May low/Session low|
|0.7604||(38.2% of 0.7915/0.7411)||0.7500||200 HMA|
|0.7582/88||(23.6% of 0.8135/0.7411) /26 April high||0.7485||100 HMA|
|0.7566||12 May high/Session high||0.7450||11 May low|
|0.7550||Minor||0.7411||9 May low|
Economic data highlights will include:
RBAs Debelle Speech, RBA Minutes, China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment – Mar
|The Kiwi is lower on Tuesday, hurt by contagion from the EM selloff, and after seeing an early high of 0.6974 it is now sitting just above the lows of 0.6910, currently right on the major rising trend support|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower||Daily Indicators: Turning lower||Weekly Indicators: Turning lower|
|Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi looks vulnerable to further fallout from the selloff in the EM sector, and a break of current levels could see quite a sharp move lower. Important support (rising trend line) may hold it here above 0.6900 but a downside break would trigger stops and open up a move to 0.6815 and then to 0.6780, with only minor support to be seen once 0.6900 is broken.
On the topside, sellers will be found today at 0.6950 (minor) and at the Monday high of 0.6975 ahead of 0.6980/85, at 0.6995/7000. This looks unlikely to be revisited today, although if wrong, look for a squeeze towards the 8 May high of 0.7030. Above here, unlikely, a bounce to 0.7040/50 would see sellers, beyond which allows for 0.7080 and then 0.7095/00, but probably not for quite a while now.
Global Dairy Trade Index tonight
Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6950. SL @ 0.6990, TP @ 0.6825
|0.7030||8 May high||0.6910/15||Session low/Rising trend support|
|0.7015/20||100 HMA/200 HMA||0.6902||11 May low|
|0.6997||9 May high||0.6870||Minor|
|0.6986||12 May high||0.6850||Minor|
|0.6976||Session high||0.6828||11 Dec low|
Economic data highlights will include:
Global Dairy Trade Index