15 May: US10 Year yields back above 3%, underpinning the dollar. China/US Retail Sales, EU GDP in focus today.

By | May 15, 2018

 

Stocks are mixed, ending the day around their opening levels, while the US$ has is mildly firmer, grinding higher through a quiet Monday session, with the ongoing meltdown in Emerging Markets, particularly the ARS and TRY in focus and infecting the  rest of the EM FX and high-beta sector, with the MXN, BRL and the Kiwi under pressure today. Elsewhere the majors have been quiet and rangebound although the US$ is mostly finishing on the day’s highs. The US10Y is ending the day above 3% (3.005%) which is helping to underpin the dollar. WTI settled higher  as traders cheered a mostly bullish report from OPEC showing that excess stockpiles of global crude has been nearly eliminated.

Tuesday will be a busy session, beginnings in Asia with the RBA Minutes and the China Retail Sales/Industrial Production figures. Europe will follow up with the German/EU Preliminary Q1 GDP (exp +0.4% qq both for German/EU), UK Unemployment (exp +3.5k, Ave Earnings – excluding bonus +2.8%) and Inflation Report Hearing, as well as the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey. The day will finish with the US Retail Sales (exp RS-Ex Auto +0.5%mm, Control Group +0.3%mm).

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1927
Res  1.1950  1.1975  1.1995
Sup  1.1890  1.1850  1.1820
USDJPY: 109.68
Res  109.80  110.20  110.00
Sup  109.50  109.25  109.00
GBPUSD: 1.3557
Res  1.3580  1.3610  1.3630
Sup  1.3535  1.3520  1.3500
USDCHF: 1.0003
Res  1.0015  1.0040  1.0055
Sup  0.9975  0.9955  0.9935
AUDUSD: 0.7526
Res  0.7545  0.7565  0.7585
Sup  0.7520  0.7500  0.7485
NZDUSD: 0.6916
Res  0.6940  0.6965  0.6985
Sup  0.6900  0.6890  0.6865
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2729
Res  2740  2755  2770
Sup  2715  2700  2685
DJ30.fs: 24882
Res  24965  25075  25180
Sup  24785  24685  24590
SPI200.fs: 6121
Res  6135  6150  6170
Sup  6105  6085  6070
XAUUSD: 1314
Res  1320  1325  1330
Sup  1310  1305  1300
XAGUSD: 16.51
Res  16.65  16.85  17.00
Sup  16.45  16.30  16.10
WTI.fs: 71.13
Res  71.85  73.00  74.00
Sup  70.00  69.00  68.00