16 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 16, 2019

Markets have been pretty much static on Monday as traders turned their focus to the events in Paris, and most products are as they were yesterday.

EurUsd: reached its H/S target on Friday at 1.1320/25 and ran into the resistance at 1.1315, this being the daily Ichimoku cloud and Kijun although the range has been a very tight 23 points.  The daily momentum indicators look mildly supportive though and a break of the resistance could see a run towards 1.1345 (100 DMA/61.8% of 1.1447/1.1182) and 1.1385 (76.4%). On the downside, back below 1.1285 (100 HMA) could see a return to 1.1250/45, and the 1.1230 spike low seen last Wednesday after the ECB meeting. Below there, decent support would again be seen at 1.1200/10. Only a break of 1.1175 would renew the downside pressure, for a run towards targets likely to be at 1.1125 (20 June 2017 low), and eventually at 1.1100 and 1.1065. Right now, buying dips may be the plan

AudUsd: had a tight 20 pip range below Friday’s high of 0.7192, which comes ahead of the 200 DMA, 0.7195, and is currently at back at 0.7165. Beyond 0.7195, a break of 0.7206 (21 Feb high) is required to make further progress, and further positive news from the Chinese data this week could be the catalyst. If so, look for a run towards 0.7225 (76.4% of 0.7295/0.7002) and eventually to 07265 (5 Feb high) and even to 0.7295(31 Jan high). Downside support will arrive at 0.7150 and at 0.7135 (200 HMA) ahead of 0.7100/0.7090, below which would open the way to the rising trend support at 0.7075. As with the Euro, buying dips currently seems to be the plan

NzdUsd: Having made a new 3 month low at 0.6713 on Friday, before squeezing sharply higher, to 0.6781, the Kiwi has since consolidated in a narrow range around 0.6760.  The momentum indicators look rather neutral on Tuesday and a cautious stance is required but as long as risk sentiment remains underpinned the Kiwi should see the benefit. For the time being buying dips towards the 200 DMA at 0.6735 with a tight SL below Friday’s low seems to be the plan. Above 0.6780, the target would be 0.6798 (38.2% of 0.6938/0.6713) and then 0.6826 (50%)

US$Jpy: had a neutral session on Monday, using 112.00 as a pivot, where it is currently trading in early Tuesday Asian trade. The 200 WMA is at 112.05 and a sustained break of this is needed to push on towards 112.50/60 and then to 113.05 (61.8% of 118.61/104.01). If risk sentiment were to deteriorate, then we are likely to see a return back below the Monday low of 111.88, towards 111.50 (200 HMA) and to 111.00. Below this would open 110.80/75 – 100 WMA/ (50% pivot of 109.70/111.82) and possibly 110.50 (61.8%).

On the crosses, AudJpy made a 4 month high on Friday, coming to rest on the 200 DMA, last seen in mid December and where it currently sits. This will continue to provide decent resistance, but the daily/weekly charts are looking more positive, and  a break would open the way to 81.00 and possibly to 81.90 (50% pivot of 90.30/68.50 (flash-crash low)). Keep SL below 79.15 (100 DMA)

EurJpy has consolidated its gains below Friday’s high of high 126.76. This level is strong and will not be easily overcome, being the 200 WMA. However, a break would target 127.50 ahead of 127.90/128.00.  Both crosses look positive on the charts and buying dips seems to be the idea. SL; below 126.00

The most interesting charts are in Gold and Silver, as we said before, where the possibility of a head/shoulder top remains in place with good potential downside momentum for both.  If the neckline for each of these were to break, Gold would have a downside potential towards $1200oz and for Silver to around 13.85oz.

Stocks: had a neutral start to the week and the short term momentum indicators look indecisive for both the S+P and the DJI, while the weeklies remain positive. The all-time-high targets are now in sight, in the S+P at 2940, while the initial DJI target is at 26750, above which could target its all-time high at 26950. BOA, Blackrock, J&J, Netflix report on Tuesday.

Some caution is required though. The dailies are showing a degree of bearish divergence and we need to hold above rising trend support in order to maintain the upside momentum, these now being at 2890 and at 26200.

WTI: is steady, currently at 63.50, and the dailies may be showing signs of a top, although the weeklies remain positive. A cautious stance is required but the uptrend will remain intact as long as the uptrend support at 61.25 holds – and this roughly ties in with the 200 DMA. Resistance is seen at 64.40/80, but above 65.00 would then allow for a run towards the next major target, seen at 66.80 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03) and then at 68.00. This is unlikely any time soon although as we said previously, the S/H/S target is at 70.00.  The short term/daily momentum indicators are suggesting caution on the topside, and if the negative risk sentiment does grow, then the upside for WTI is limited. The weekend statement from the Russian Finance Minister that Russia and OPEC could decide to increase oil production to fight for market share with the United States will ensure some nervousness on the topside, but as long as 61.00/50 holds, the uptrend is intact. Below there would allow for a return to 60.00 and possibly to 58.00 although at this stage this seems unlikely.  The next OPEC meeting is on June 25/26

———————————————————————————————————————

*Trade of the day: April 16, 2019; 8:44 AM(AET)                               

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1340. SL @ 1.1360, TP @ 1.1225

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1250. SL @ 1.1215, TP @ 1.1325

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7205. SL @ 0.7235, TP @ 0.7150

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7140. SL @ 0.7120, TP @ 0.7220

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6805. SL @ 0.6835, TP @ 0.6740

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6745. SL @ 0.67100, TP @ 0.6825