16 Dec:US$, bond yields climb on Fed rate outlook, with more to come in 2017. EU CPI today.

By | December 16, 2016

Following the buying spree after yesterday’s FOMC decision, the dollar and bond yields are both higher at the end of Thursday’s session today after another bunch of solid US economic data. The headline US CPI rose to 1.7% yy in November, while the Core CPI was unchanged at 2.1% yy, both in line with expectation. The NY State Empire Manufacturing index jumped to 9.0 in December, way above expectation of 4.0, while the Philly Fed survey rose to 21.5; also well above expectation of 9.0. Earlier in the session, both the BOE and the SNB left monetary policies unchanged today as widely expected

Friday should be a relatively quiet run-in to the weekend. There is little due in Asia (NZ Current Account) and then from the EU the main focus will be on the EU Trade Balance and CPI (exp -0.1%mm, +0.6%yy; Core, exp +0.8%yy). The US sees the November Building Permits, Housing Starts and a speech from the Fed’s Lacker but that is about it. Have a good weekend

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0420
Res  1.0450  1.0485  1.0520
Sup  1.0365  1.0335  1.0300
USDJPY: 118.04
Res  118.65  119.00  119.35
Sup  117.65  117.15  116.50
GBPUSD: 1.2426
Res  1.2455  1.2500  1.2565
Sup  1.2375  1.2300  1.2250
USDCHF: 1.0301
Res  1.0345  1.0400  1.0450
Sup  1.0275  1.0250  1.0200
AUDUSD: 0.7362
Res  0.7380  0.7405  0.7430
Sup  0.7335  0.7305  0.7285
NZDUSD: 0.7039
Res  0.7065  0.7080  0.7100
Sup  0.7010  0.6985  0.6975
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2256
Res  2268  2278  2290
Sup  2246  2234  2222
DJI: 19788
Res  19895  20000  19965
Sup  19745  19700  19600
ASX SPI: 5492
Res  5510  5538  5554
Sup  5468  5446  5422
GOLD: 1130
Res  1144  1150  1164
Sup  1122  1110  1100
SILVER: 16.01
Res  16.15  16.30  16.60
Sup  15.85  15.50  15.35
OIL (WTI): 50.98
Res  51.60  52.40  52.75
Sup  50.00  49.50  49.00

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2256

US stock indices have been surprisingly steady following the FOMC decision – and rather succumbing to the prospect of higher interest rates they have been underpinned through the session by the banking sector, which sees the chance of increased profits.

The 4 hour momentum indicators are now flat although the dailies still appear to be topping out so some caution is warranted on the topside. After the recent strong run higher, there is now minor support at the 2247 session low and then at 2240 (200 HMA), but really not too much to be seen under there until 2220 (23.6% of 2028/2276). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 2265/70 and again at the all-time high of 2777, above which would see the slow grind continue to 2300, albeit this now seems delayed for a while.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Mildly bearish

 

                                         Resistance Support
2280 Minor 2247 Session low
2275 Minor 2235 Minor
2277 All-time high/14 Dec high 2230 Minor
2267 Session high 2225 Minor
2260 Minor 2220 Minor
DJI Futures 19788

Ditto S+P. The DJI has ranged between 19740/19894, currently at 19800. The dailies may be topping out, in which case below the session low could see a run back to 19600 and possibly to 19350. On the topside, the approach to 20,000 will see plenty of sellers, but above which the relentless squeeze higher may continue. I prefer to sell into strength ahead of 20,000, with a tight SL placed just above.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Mildly bearish

 

Resistance Support
22000 Minor 19740 Session low
21000 Minor 19700 Minor.
20000 Minor 19600 Minor
19964 All-time high/14 Dec high 19500 Minor.
19894 Session high 19400 Minor
ASX SPI 5492

The ASX fell to 5467 early in the session, and since then it has bounced around above there and mostly below 5500. While the 4 hour charts suggest the chance of a similar session today, the daily indicators hint that it may be the downside that eventually comes under pressure, where minor support will arrive at the session low , below which could see a run towards the 7 Dec low of 5447 and then to the 6 Dec low of 5422. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 5515 and at the 5550 area although that looks delayed for a while to come

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Mildly bearish

 

Resistance Support
5580 Minor 5467 Session low
5555 100 HMA 5457 (23.6% of 5029/5681)
5549 14 Dec high 5440 Minor
5535 Minor 5410 100 DMA
5515 Session high 5388 5 Dec low
GOLD 1130

Gold has now fallen to the 1120 support band (low 1122) ahead of a mild bounce into the end of the day, to finish at 1130.  Below 1120 would allow a move to 1100, a break of which could then see a run towards 1090 and even to 1070 and while the weekly charts suggest that this could eventually happen, the dailies are becoming oversold, and the 4 hour charts hint at the chance of a bounce, providing better levels to sell into.

If so, the topside will see offers at 1145/50 and again at 1160/65. Selling rallies is preferred.

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies

 

Resistance Support
1172 (23.6% of 1337/1122) 1123/22 Session low/(76.4% of 1046/1375)
1165 14 Dec high /12 Dec high 1108 28 Jan low
1157 Minor 1100 Minor
1150 Minor 1090 Minor
1144 Session high 1071 14 Jan low
SILVER 16.01

Silver did its best to hold on above 16.80, but when that gave way the decline took it quickly to 15.88 before a mild bounce back to 16.00. The 4 hour momentum indicators are pointing sharply lower and below 15.80 could quickly see a run towards 15.35/30, below which 15.00 and 14.80 would attract.

On the topside, 16.15/30 will provide minor resistance ahead of 16.60, above which would then open the way towards 17.00, albeit doubtful today. Selling rallies is preferred.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
17.05 (38.2% of 18.98/15.88) 15.88 Minor
16.88 200 HMA 15.50 Minor
16.60 (23.6% of 18.98/15.88) 15.35/38 11 April low/(76.4% of 13.64/21.13)
16.30 Minor 15.00 Minor
16.15 Minor 14.78 1 April low
OIL (WTI) 50.98

WTI had a choppy session and while it has held on above 50.00, it is beginning to look heavy given that the daily momentum indicators appear to be rolling over.

Some support will arrive at 50.00/49.75, but below which could see an acceleration towards 48.00/50, below which could see a run to 46.50/00. On the topside, above today’s 51.45 high, the next resistance will be seen at 52.50/70 and then again at the session high of 52.75. Selling rallies now seems to be the plan

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies

 

Resistance Support
53.30 Minor 50.70 Minor
52.75 14 Dec high 49.92 Session low
52.40 Minor 49.58 8 Dec low
52.00 Minor 49.00 Minor
51.45 Session high 48.30 (50% pivot of 42.18/54.48)

EURUSD: 1.0420

The dollar seems to be on a roll following the FOMC announcement, and with the daily/weekly momentum indicators picking up downside momentum, a test of parity would seem to be a matter of time. Indeed the head/shoulder formation, seen on the monthly charts, suggests that eventually we are heading much, much lower. In the meantime, selling rallies appears to be the plan. The short term momentum indicators hint at the chance of a rally towards 1.0490/1.0550, but I would not be looking for too much more than that today.

24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Bearish

 

Resistance Support
1.0600 Minor 1.0365 Session low
1.0560 (38.2% of 1.0365/1.0872) 1.0334 Jan 2003 low
1.0520 Minor 1.0300 Minor
1.0485 (23.6 of 1.0365/1.0872) 1.0250 Minor
1.0450 Minor 1.0200 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

German Wage Price Index, EU Trade Balance, CPI, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed’s Lacker Speech, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euroeuro1


USDJPY: 118.04

There is no stopping US$Jpy as it heads towards 120.00, today reaching a high of 118.65, pulling up just short of the descending trend resistance seen at around 118.80, after having risen sharply from 115.00 following the FOMC announcement. The BOJ meet on 19/20 Dec and are expected to remain on hold.

Although technical picture suggests that the dailies remain overbought, there seems to be no stopping the dollar and buying dips seems to be the plan, with a SL placed under the rising trend support, now at 115.65. There are easier pairs to trade right now but looking further out, with the weeklies pointing strongly higher, a retest of 125.85 (7 June 2015 high) would seem to be on the cards at some stage

24 Hour: Mildly bullish

Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
120.00 Psychological 117.65 Minor
119.35 (76.4% of 125.85/98.94) 117.15 Minor
119.00 Minor 116.50 Minor
118.80 Descending trend resistance 116.00 Minor
118.65 Session high 115.65 Rising trend support

Economic data highlights will include:

Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment .

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen


GBPUSD: 1.2426

The BOE remained on hold on Thursday, but that was little help to Sterling which headed to a low of 1.2375 before finding any stability, allowing a bounce into the end of the session to close the day at 1.2440.

The 4 hour momentum indicators are pointing lower and the dailies also appear to be turning negative so further losses appear likely, although possibly not to the same extent as the Euro, so a short EurGbp trade may be worth a thought.

BOE Quarterly Bulletin today.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Mildly bearish

 

Resistance Support
1.2615 100 HMA 1.2400 Minor
1.2600 Minor 1.2375 Session low
1.2565 Session high 1.2300 (50% pivot of 1.1821/1.2775)
1.2500 Minor 1.2250 Minor
1.2450 Minor 1.2190 (61.8% of 1.1821/1.2775)

Economic data highlights will include:

CBI Distributive Trends Survey, BOE Quarterly Bulletin

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 1.0301

US$Chf has taken out all the near term resistance levels and there is now not too much to stop it heading on towards 1.0600+. Short term dips are likely, where the downside looks supported at 1.0265/75 and at 1.0220, with a SL best placed below the 1.0195 low.

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium term: Bullish

                                                                

Resistance Support
1.0620/28 (76.4% of 1.1695/0.7080)/8 Aug 2010 high 1.0275 Minor
1.0500 1.0500 1.0250 Minor
1.0450 1.0450 1.0225 (23.6% of 1.0019/1.0343)
1.0400 1.0400 1.0195 Session low
1.0343 Session high 1.0155 (23.6% of 0.9549/1.0343)
Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7362

The Aud held on above 0.7390 ahead f the US session but further US$ buying has since sent it to a low of 0.7336 ahead of a late bounce to 0.7360.

Below the session low would allow a move to 0.7300/10, a break of which will find bids in the 0.7285/90 area, but beneath which would then open the way to 0.7220/0.7200. The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are aligning lower and selling near term rallies is preferred.

On the topside, resistance will now be seen at 0.7380 and again at 0.7405/10 although I don’t think we see it again today and prefer to sell into strength. The same applies to the longer term; I still prefer to trade from the short side, given the potential for diverging monetary policy between the RBA/Fed heading into 2017.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium term: Bearish

 

Resistance Support
0.7460 200 HMA 0.7336 Session low
0.7450 Minor 0.7310 21 Nov low
0.7430 (50% of 0.7524/0.7336) 0.7290 (76.4% of 0.7144/0.7777)
0.7407 (38.2% of 0.7524/0.7336) 0.7284 16 June low
0.7380 (23.6% of 0.7524/0.7336) 0.7218 3 June low
Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7039

Having fallen sharply from above 0.7200 following the FOMC, the Kiwi attempted to hang on to 0.7100 but eventually gave up and has since fallen to a low of 0.7010 in the 2nd half of the session.  The short term momentum indicators are now a little oversold, so a bounce back towards 0.7100 is possible although it should provide a sell opportunity, if seen.

Further out, the long term head/shoulder formation comes back into view, where the neckline is at 0.6975 and the objective is a distant 0.6435. Nearer home 0.6970/80 will see bids, but if broken we could then head towards major rising trend support at 0.6930.

24 Hour: Mildly bearish

Medium term: Bearish

 

Resistance Support
0.7125 (50% of 0.7238/0.7010) 0.7010 Session low
0.7115 Minor 0.6983 25 Nov low
0.7100 (38.2% of 0.7238/0.7010) 0.6973/78 24 Nov low, H/S Neckline
0.7080 Minor 0.6930 Rising trend support
0.7065 (23.6% of 0.7238/0.7010) 0.6910 (61.8% of 0.6347/0.7484)

Economic data highlights will include:

Current Account

Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzdnzd1

The post 16 Dec:US$, bond yields climb on Fed rate outlook, with more to come in 2017. EU CPI today. appeared first on FX Charts Daily.