16 July: China GDP, US Retail Sales today. Fed’s Powell to testify to Congress tomorrow.

By | July 16, 2018

 

Markets were choppy on Friday, with the US$ reversing European gains as the session drew to a close, with traders taking profits on long positions after showing some relief that China had refrained from any response to the US move to impose tariffs on the additional US$ 200 Bio in China imports. The lack of any need for safe-haven demand saw the Yen and Chf come under particular pressure and both closed near their session lows against the dollar. Sterling survived the resignation of two UK ministers and Trump’s visit although Brexit will continue to ensure its has its nervous moments..  In other markets, stocks finished a little higher (0.2%-0.4%), while commodities generally moved a little lower, although WTI put on 1% in a volatile session ahead of this week’s OPEC Meeting.

Looking ahead, today will see the China Q2 GDP, (exp 1.6%qq, 6.7%yy), Retail Sales- June (exp 9%), Industrial Production.- May (6.5%), Fixed Asset Investment (6.0%) and the NBS Press Conference. Europe will be quiet, with just the EU Trade Balance for May, while the US will look to the June Retail Sales for guidance (exp 0.4%). Later in the week, the highlights will include the NZ Q2 CPI and RBA Minutes (Tue), UK and EU CPI (Wed), Australian Unemployment and UK Retail Sales (Thur), with little on the agenda for Friday although there will be an OPEC Meeting to be held. There will also be assorted CB speakers throughout the week, with the main event being the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on the economy and monetary policy to the Senate committee on Tuesday. Ahead of that, traders will today be looking to Helsinki, where Trump will be meeting Putin

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1685
Res  1.1700  1.1720  1.1760
Sup  1.1650  1.1630  1.1615
USDJPY: 112.33
Res  112.55  112.80  113.00
Sup  112.00  111.70  111.40
GBPUSD: 1.3236
Res  1.3265  1.3300  1.3325
Sup  1.3205  1.3180  1.3155
USDCHF: 1.0015
Res  1.0040  1.0065  1.0090
Sup  1.0000  0.9980  0.9945
AUDUSD: 0.7423
Res  0.7435  0.7445  0.7460
Sup  0.7410  0.7395  0.7380
NZDUSD: 0.6766
Res  0.6785  0.6805  0.6825
Sup  0.6750  0.6725  0.6700
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2803
Res  2810  2820  2830
Sup  2795  2785  2775
DJ30.fs: 25018
Res  25030  25075  25150
Sup  24950  24870  24800
SPI200.fs: 6211
Res  6225  6245  6265
Sup  6200  6180  6160
XAUUSD: 1241
Res  1245  1250  1255
Sup  1235  1230  1225
XAGUSD: 15.80
Res  15.85  15.95  16.05
Sup  15.70  15.60  15.50
WTI.fs: 70.48
Res  71.50  72.10  73.10
Sup  69.95  69.19  68.39