16 Nov: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | November 16, 2017


S&P: 2566
Preferred Strategy: US. Stock indexes ended around 0.5% lower on Wednesday, undermined by the weak oil price, which hit energy stocks and speculation of a delay in the US tax cuts.

Overall though, the 2555/60 support area continues to hold and the current consolidation could be a healthy sign for the eventual continuation of the long term uptrend. As we said last week though, while a test of 2600 should not be ruled out, the longer-term indicators do look a bit toppish, so I am rather wary of being long at these levels although if US bond yields head lower, then the upside will again prevail. Much will depend on the outcome of Trump’s tax reforms and as before, I prefer not to be involved at these lofty levels although at this stage there is little sign of a significant turnaround to the longer term uptrend.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2594 9 Nov high  – all-time high 2555 Session low
2584/85 13 Nov high/10 Nov high 2550 (23.6% of 2421/2594)
2581 14 Nov high 2545 Minor
2576 Session high 2541 25 Oct low
2570 Minor 2525 (38.2% of 2421/2594)

DJI: 23253
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23600 Minor 23205/01 Session low /25 Oct low
23555 7 Nov high – all-time high 23198 25 Oct low
23445 10 Nov high 23150 Minor
23427 13 Nov high 23085 (23.6% of 21578/23555)
23363 Session high 23000 Minor

ASX SPI: 5963
Preferred Strategy: The ASX SPI200 fell to a low of 5921 but then recovered well to close at 5965 on Wednesday. The 4 hour indicators suggest further near term gains are possible, where 5980/6000 would provide decent resistance.

The dailies are turning to point quite strongly lower though and it the US indices continue to sag then a steeper test of the downside may be on the cards. For the time being though, support will arrive at 5920

and again at 5900/10 and 5885.

The weeklies s till point higher though and If we do carry on above the recent  6044 high, there seems to be little to stop the SPI reaching 6102, which would close a major chart gap from Dec 2007.  Ahead of that, today will find offers at 5970, 5885 and 6000 although I would be surprised to see it back above here in the short term.

24 Hour: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Turning Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5950 Minor
6025 Minor 5935 Minor
6000 Minor 5921 Session low
5980 200 HMA 5907 2 Nov low
5967 Session high 5885 (38.2% of 5626/6046)

XAUUSD: 1279
Preferred Strategy: Gold had another choppy session, today rising to 1290 before falling hard to the lows of 1276, where it has closed the US session.

As before, the broad 1265/85 range remains intact, and with the momentum indicators looking neutral we might expect more of the same today, with direction dependent on the dollar/US yields.

A weaker US$ would potentially see gold head back above the 1290 high towards 1300/10, although the momentum indicators are now fairly flat.  If we see the dollar regain its recent losses, we could then see a return to 1260/70., where strong support lies but below which would open up 1250, where the rising trend support will provide decent support.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1276 100 DMA/Session low
1296 17 Oct high 1269 14 Nov low
1291 20 Oct high 1266 6 Nov low
1289 Session high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1280 200 HMA 1251 8 Aug low/Rising trend support

XAGUSD: 16.98
Preferred Strategy: Silver remains choppy, within its recent range and seems set to continue to be so.

Both the short term and the daily momentum indicators are neutral, so more of the same could be in store and the 16.80/17.25 area seems to still have it covered.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 16.96 Session low
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.90/87 100 WMA /14 Nov low
17.27 20 Oct high/19 Oct high /200 WMA 16.80/78 10 Nov low/6 Nov low/3 Nov low
17.25 8 Nov high 16.66/63 1 Nov low/31 Oct low
17.20 Session high 16.60 27 Oct low/(76.4% of 16.32/17.41)

WTI: 55.26
Preferred Strategy: WTI had another heavy session but at the end of the day, after having dipped to 54.88 it has recovered, to close back above 55.00 and with the short term momentum indicators looking a little more positive we could see further minor gains today. Near term (minor) resistance seems set to arrive at 55.75 ahead of 56.20 and 56.75.

The dailies looking toppish, further downside momentum seems likely in the days ahead but as long as we stay above the rising trend support at 52.50, I prefer to look for areas to buy dips. In the meantime, look for support levels at 54.75, 54.50 and 53.15.

In the bigger picture the weeklies remain positive. Major Fibo resistance lies at 57.15 (38.2% of 107.65/26.03) but having briefly moved up to 57.89 last week, this will act as strong resistance ahead of the chance of a test of equally strong resistance, the 200 WMA at 59.00. Above here 60.00 would seem a short step away although that is well over the horizon right now.

24 Hour: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – but prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
57.89 8 Nov high 54.75/79 (23.6% of 45.56/57.89) 14 Nov low
57.13 13 Nov high 54.10 (23.6% of 42.03/57.89)
56.75 14 Nov high 53.74 30 Oct low
56.20 Minor 53.15 (38.2% of 45.56/57.58)
55.53 Session high 52.50 Rising trend support